US President Donald Trump did not make it to the ASEAN summit in Singapore, but his influence was still keenly felt among the leaders who gathered in the city-state.
One prime minister warned that the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing could trigger a “domino effect” of protectionist steps by other nations. Another fretted that the international order could splinter into rival blocs.
“The most important and talked-about ... leader, President Trump, is the only one that did not turn up,” Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow Malcolm Cook said.
And yet, in Trump’s absence, nations from South Asia to East Asia pressed on with forging multilateral ties on trade and investment among themselves, including with China.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (李克強), the nation’s representative at the meetings, egged them on.
“Now the world is facing rising protectionism it is all the more important for us to come together and respond to the complex world situation, to uphold multilateralism and free trade,” Li said on Thursday last week.
The US president’s lack of engagement with Asian nations came just days after a trip to France for World War I commemorations at which he appeared isolated from NATO allies.
Singapore Institute of International Affairs chairman Simon Tay said Trump was inadvertently bringing Asian nations together.
“Not necessarily by design, but because he is not being a consistent and reassuring presence, and because his policies have tended to fracture the natural order that Asia is dependent upon,” Tay said. “Asians are trying to figure out what else they can do without relying on America too much.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
As well as the ASEAN summit in Singapore, Trump also skipped the APEC forum in Papua New Guinea at the weekend.
At APEC on Friday last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) showcased China’s Belt and Road Initiative to Pacific leaders, several of whom were expected to sign up to the infrastructure investment drive.
Xi’s multibillion-dollar plan, which aims to bolster a sprawling network of land and sea links with Asian neighbors and far beyond, is viewed with suspicion in Western capitals as an attempt to assert Chinese influence.
Trump attended both the ASEAN and APEC meetings last year, and his decision to stay away this year has raised questions about Washington’s commitment to a regional strategy to counter China.
US Vice President Mike Pence, who represented Trump in Singapore, told the meeting that the US’ commitment to the Indo-Pacific region is “steadfast and enduring.”
Asia presents the Trump administration with some of its most pressing foreign policy challenges, including its strategic rivalry with China and efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.
Washington has touted what it calls an “Indo-Pacific” strategy aimed at greater regional cooperation, notably with India, Australia and Japan, to counter China’s influence, including in the disputed South China Sea, where it conducts naval patrols to challenge what it sees as Beijing’s excessive territorial claims.
Pence on Thursday last week said — without naming China — that there was no place for “empire and aggression” in the Indo-Pacific region.
His comments follow a major speech last month in which he flagged a tougher approach by Washington toward Beijing, accusing China of “malign” efforts to undermine Trump and reckless military actions in the South China Sea.
“We welcome contributions by China to regional development, so long as it adheres to the highest standards the people of the region demand,” a US Department of State spokesman said. “We are concerned by China’s use of coercion, influence operations and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed China’s strategic agenda.”
Shortly before Pence spoke in Singapore, the US Navy announced that two of its aircraft carriers with about 150 fighter jets were conducting warfare drills in the Philippine Sea, a show of force in waters south of China and within striking distance of North Korea.
Pence told reporters in Singapore that he had been struck in conversations with world leaders by “the connection that President Trump has made” with them through his vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
However, analysts say that nations across Asia are waiting for the US to put substance behind its Indo-Pacific rhetoric, and Trump’s absence from the summits only served to heighten concerns among Southeast Asian states that Washington no longer has their back.
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) on Thursday last week it was “very desirable” for ASEAN not to have to take sides with world powers, but there might come a time when it would “have to choose one or the other.”
Some Southeast Asian nations might be quietly impressed by the US’ robust approach to Beijing on trade, intellectual property issues and the South China Sea, but others have made it clear they already see China’s rise as inevitable.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, asked on Thursday last week about the US Navy drills, said that China already occupies contested South China Sea islands.
“Why do you have to create frictions ... that will prompt a response from China?” he said.
However, Cook said Southeast Asian states’ hedging and unwillingness to publicly criticize Chinese aggression have contributed to Washington’s posture shift in Asia.
“This change is certainly not all because of Trump,” he said. “The choices of Southeast Asian states in the end bear some responsibility.”
Additional reporting by John Geddie, Aradhana Aravindan, Jeff Mason and David Brunnstrom
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