Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have been nothing short of dramatic. AI is transforming nearly every sector of society, from transportation to medicine to defense. So it is worth considering what will happen when it becomes even more advanced than it already is.
The apocalyptic view is that AI-driven machines will outsmart humanity, take over the world, and kill us all. This scenario crops up often in science fiction and is easy enough to dismiss, given that humans remain firmly in control.
However, many AI experts take the apocalyptic perspective seriously, and they are right to do so. The rest of society should as well.
Illustration: Mountain people
To understand what is at stake, consider the distinction between “narrow AI” and “artificial general intelligence” (AGI). Narrow AI can operate only in one or a few domains at a time, so while it might outperform humans in select tasks, it remains under human control.
AGI, by contrast, can reason across a wide range of domains, and thus, could replicate many human intellectual skills, while retaining all of the advantages of computers, such as perfect memory recall. Run on sophisticated computer hardware, AGI could outpace human cognition. It is actually hard to conceive an upper limit for how advanced AGI could become.
As it stands, most AI is narrow. Indeed, even the most advanced current systems have only limited amounts of generality. For example, while Google DeepMind’s AlphaZero system was able to master Go, chess and shogi — making it more general than most other AI systems, which can be applied only to a single specific activity — it has still demonstrated capability only within the limited confines of certain highly structured board games.
Many knowledgeable people dismiss the prospect of advanced AGI. Some, such as Selmer Bringsjord of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Drew McDermott of Yale University, say that it is impossible for AI to outsmart humanity.
Others, such as Margaret Boden of the University of Sussex and Oren Etzioni of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, say that human-level AI might be possible in the distant future, but that it is far too early to start worrying about it now.
These skeptics are not marginal figures, like the cranks who try to cast doubt on climate-change science. They are distinguished academics in computer science and related fields and their opinions must be taken seriously.
Yet other distinguished academics — including David Chalmers of New York University, Yale University’s Allan Dafoe and Stuart Russell of the University of California, Berkeley, Nick Bostrom of Oxford University, and Roman Yampolskiy of the University of Louisville — do worry that AGI could pose a serious or even existential threat to humanity.
With experts lining up on both sides of the debate, the rest of us should keep an open mind.
Moreover, AGI is the focus of significant research and development (R&D). I recently completed a survey of AGI R&D projects, identifying 45 in 30 countries on six continents.
Many active initiatives are based in major corporations such as Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Tencent, and in top universities, such as Carnegie Mellon, Harvard and Stanford, as well as the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It would be unwise to simply assume that none of these projects would succeed.
Another way of thinking about the potential threat of AGI is to compare it with other catastrophic risks. In the 1990s, the US Congress saw fit to have NASA track large asteroids that could collide with Earth, even though the odds of that happening are about one in 5,000 per century.
With AGI, the odds of a catastrophe happening in the upcoming century could be as high as one in 100, or even one in 10, judging by the pace of R&D and the level of expert concern.
The question, then, is what to do about it. For starters, we need to ensure that R&D is conducted responsibly, safely and ethically. This will require increased dialogue between those working in the AI field and policymakers, social scientists and concerned citizens.
Those in the field know the technology and will be the ones to design it according to agreed standards; but they must not decide alone what those standards will be.
Many of the people developing AI applications are not accustomed to thinking about the social implications of their work. For that to change, they must be exposed to outside perspectives.
Policymakers will also have to grapple with AGI’s international dimensions.
The bulk of AGI R&D is carried out in the US, Europe and China, but much of the code is open source, meaning that the work potentially can be done from anywhere. So, establishing standards and ethical ground rules is ultimately a job for the entire international community, although the R&D hubs should take the lead.
Looking ahead, some efforts to address the risks posed by AGI can piggyback on policy initiatives already put in place for narrow AI, such as the new bipartisan AI Caucus launched by US Representative John Delaney. There are many opportunities for synergy between those working on near-term AI risks and those thinking about the long term.
However, regardless of whether narrow AI and AGI are considered together or separately, what matters most is that we take constructive action now to minimize the risk of a catastrophe down the road. This is not a task that we can hope to complete at the last minute.
Seth Baum is the executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, a think tank focused on extreme global risks. He is also affiliated with the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science and the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
President William Lai (賴清德) attended a dinner held by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) when representatives from the group visited Taiwan in October. In a speech at the event, Lai highlighted similarities in the geopolitical challenges faced by Israel and Taiwan, saying that the two countries “stand on the front line against authoritarianism.” Lai noted how Taiwan had “immediately condemned” the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and had provided humanitarian aid. Lai was heavily criticized from some quarters for standing with AIPAC and Israel. On Nov. 4, the Taipei Times published an opinion article (“Speak out on the
Eighty-seven percent of Taiwan’s energy supply this year came from burning fossil fuels, with more than 47 percent of that from gas-fired power generation. The figures attracted international attention since they were in October published in a Reuters report, which highlighted the fragility and structural challenges of Taiwan’s energy sector, accumulated through long-standing policy choices. The nation’s overreliance on natural gas is proving unstable and inadequate. The rising use of natural gas does not project an image of a Taiwan committed to a green energy transition; rather, it seems that Taiwan is attempting to patch up structural gaps in lieu of
News about expanding security cooperation between Israel and Taiwan, including the visits of Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) in September and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) this month, as well as growing ties in areas such as missile defense and cybersecurity, should not be viewed as isolated events. The emphasis on missile defense, including Taiwan’s newly introduced T-Dome project, is simply the most visible sign of a deeper trend that has been taking shape quietly over the past two to three years. Taipei is seeking to expand security and defense cooperation with Israel, something officials
“Can you tell me where the time and motivation will come from to get students to improve their English proficiency in four years of university?” The teacher’s question — not accusatory, just slightly exasperated — was directed at the panelists at the end of a recent conference on English language learning at Taiwanese universities. Perhaps thankfully for the professors on stage, her question was too big for the five minutes remaining. However, it hung over the venue like an ominous cloud on an otherwise sunny-skies day of research into English as a medium of instruction and the government’s Bilingual Nation 2030
RSS