Former US vice president Richard Cheney on Aug. 8 delivered a speech at a forum on Asia-Pacific security held by the Prospect Foundation in Taipei.
Having served three US administrations — under former US presidents Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush — Cheney is knowledgeable about defense issues and is thought to have been influential in shaping George W. Bush’s national security policies.
In response to the North Korean nuclear threat, Cheney advocated regime change in the North, either by engineering a coup or a decapitation strike. Bush did not take his advice and instead “outsourcing” the issue to China.
As a result, former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) arranged the first six-party talks in Beijing in August 2003, with North Korea, South Korea, the US, Japan, Russia and China attending.
After China and North Korea deceived the others, Pyongyang had almost three years to develop long-range missiles and nuclear weapons.
In June 2006, the North broke the agreement reached at the six-party talks in September 2005 to denuclearize by conducting a long-range Taepodong-2 missile test, followed by its first nuclear test three months later.
After former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died in 2011, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, became the new leader at the age of 27.
The young and energetic Kim Jong-un stepped up the development of his nation’s nuclear program and long-range missiles to consolidate his hold on power.
There were reports that Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who was very powerful as “regent,” had mentioned the possibility of replacing Kim Jong-un with his exiled paternal half-brother, Kim Jong-nam. The information was leaked, and Kim Jong-un ordered the arrest and execution of Jang.
In February this year, Kim Jong-nam was killed by alleged North Korean agents in Kuala Lumpur to eliminate future problems.
In recent years, relations between Pyongyang and Beijing seem to have deteriorated as Beijing has intervened in North Korean politics in an attempt to overthrow Kim Jong-un.
On Aug. 5, China, Russia and the other UN Security Council members voted for a series of tough sanctions on North Korea.
In response, Kim Jong-un threatened to retaliate, and only hours after US President Donald Trump on Aug. 8 warned North Korea against making further threats by saying that an attack would “be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” a North Korean media outlet reported that Pyongyang was considering firing a medium or long-range missile toward Guam.
The Washington Post, citing a confidential assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, recently reported that North Korea can produce small nuclear warheads that fit on its missiles and has 60 nuclear missiles.
This information could increase US concern and increase Trump’s sense of urgency.
It appears that it is too late to rely on sanctions to put an end to North Korea’s nuclear policy.
“We’ve been playing the diplomatic game for a long time with North Korea, and it’s only given them time to advance their weapons program,” former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton tweeted.
Trump’s national security adviser, Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, told reporters on Aug. 5 that the US needs to have all plans in place for North Korea’s nuclear threat, including military plans.
However, are military plans really an option, or is the White House indulging in bravado?
Like the US, Kim Jong-un does not hesitate to throw out threats, and the North Korean government apparently does not believe that the US will carry them out.
The North has deployed thousands of cannons and long-range rockets north of the Demilitarized Zone, aiming them at Seoul. With 20 million South Koreans and foreign residents in Seoul held hostage by North Korea, which is ready to retaliate at any time, it is unlikely that the US would make the first move.
Pyongyang would not dare to strike first at the US, Japan or South Korea. It never intended to act on its Guam threat, and reports say that North Korea’s representative to the UN has met with US officials in private many times.
What Kim Jong-un really wants is an opportunity to negotiate directly with the US, without China interferring or South Korea participating. The most important variable that could solve the security crisis in North East Asia is whether Trump is willing to hold a summit with him at the UN.
Parris Chang is professor emeritus of political science at Pennsylvania State University and president of the Taiwan Institute for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies.
Translated by Tu Yu-an
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