There is nothing new about the insight that news coverage in local media usually lacks an international outlook as well as in-depth analysis and long-term follow-up. These days, news outlets often broadcast recordings made with dashboard cameras or Facebook posts as if they were news. This way, anything from minor car accidents to long shopping lines or extra-marital affairs becomes news.
Last Monday, the Chinese-language United Daily News’ front-page headline was that singer A-mei (阿妹) fell on stage during a performance at singer Jody Chiang’s (江蕙) concert in Taipei. Is this evidence of Taiwan’s peace and prosperity?
On the same day, another newspaper used half a page to cover horoscopes and discuss which astrological sign motorcyclists who run red lights were born under.
Instead of investigating the social and psychological factors behind running red lights, the Taipei City Motor Vehicles Office analyzed the astrological sign of riders involved in 10,000 traffic violations, implying that there is a correlation between a motorist’s star sign and tendency to disobey traffic regulations.
Astrologers in the report gave spurious explanations that appeared to be right, but were in fact wrong. They offered any explanation and disregarded sound statistical analysis. This approach avoids the issue of how to resolve traffic issues.
Such illogical and statistically flawed news reports are common. For example, one journalist reported that 90 percent of drug addicts had used marijuana in an attempt to show the seriousness of marijuana use. The report did nothing to show a correlation between marijuana use and addiction to harder substances, because the journalist failed to cite statistics to reveal the percentage of marijuana users who became drug addicts.
Another journalist reported that 80 percent of respondents had heard of sexual abuse in the military, but this does not show the seriousness of such crimes, because there is no necessary correlation between “hearing of” such cases and how common they are. If an abuse case is uncovered in the media, perhaps 80 or 90 percent of Taiwanese will hear about it, but if most assault cases are covered up by superiors, it would still be a serious problem even if no reports made headlines.
Similarly, after the government announces the winning numbers for the bimonthly Uniform Invoice Lottery, media outlets often report that a lucky consumer won the grand prize with the receipt for a purchase of a NT$10 newspaper. However, the chance of winning is the same for all invoices regardless of the cost of the purchases. For a lottery ticket store that sells a grand-prize winning ticket, the chance that it will sell another grand-prize winning ticket does not increase or decrease.
People often believe that statistics are more reliable than anecdotes, forgetting that statistics are both complied and interpreted. This is like the statistics concerning walks in baseball. When I was young, I used to think that a walk was the result of poor pitching. I later learned that it was more related to a batter’s visual judgement of pitches.
Statistics is employed as a tool for discourse as well. A politician tried to endorse Formosa Petrochemical Corp’s naphtha cracker in Yunlin County’s Mailiao Township (麥寮) by claiming that since its establishment about 10 years ago, the average life expectancy of residents in the area had increased by more than 200 days. What he did not mention was that over the same period, the average life expectancy nationwide had increased by about 1,000 days.
People should be cautious with statistics presented by the media.
Bih Herng-dar is a professor in the Graduate Institute of Building and Planning at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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