Former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) managing director Barbara Schrage’s recent remarks expressing doubt that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and prospective presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is capable of handling cross-strait relations will not be the last time the US will be seen by some as interfering in Taiwan’s elections in the run-up to the poll on Jan. 16 next year.
Schrage told a conference in Washington on Friday that Tsai’s presentation of her cross-strait policy when she visited Washington in September 2011 — as then-DPP candidate for the 2012 presidential election — had been “disappointing.”
Shrage said that Tsai would find it difficult when she goes to the US later this year if she cannot come up with an alternative to the so-called “1992 consensus” — a formula centered on the “one China” principle that Tsai has rejected.
Although the AIT in Taipei quickly moved to say that Schrage, who retired a year ago, does not represent the US government, it did little to help alleviate the DPP’s concerns that the US might once again deal a blow to Tsai’s chances as it did when, after meeting with Tsai in 2011, a “senior US official” told the Financial Times that Tsai left Washington with doubts about her willingness and ability to maintain stable cross-strait relations.
The DPP has good reason to worry about US neutrality in the election. Schrage is just one of many former US officials who appear to favor cross-strait relations operating within a strict framework. In Schrage’s words, Tsai must present a formula that can “narrow its [the DPP’s] differences with Beijing,” — presumably a reference to the DPP’s goal of Taiwanese independence or the proposal that the future of Taiwan is to be decided by Taiwanese.
In a recent paper, former US official Alan Romberg, who is now the Stimson Center’s East Asia program director, said most observers he has spoken to in Taiwan and China are skeptical about whether there is a substitute for the “1992 consensus” that could satisfy all parties without sacrificing the DPP’s principles regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and independence.
The US government is also expected to speak out in an official capacity. As former AIT chairman Richard Bush said in September, the US government might express its views on the election — as previous US administrations have done — either through actions, public statements or a media interview of an anonymous official, such as the Financial Times report. Bush said, however, that in his view, these actions do not constitute an intervention because the US is expressing itself about the implications of Taiwan’s elections on US interests rather than declaring its preference for a particular candidate or telling Taiwanese who to vote for.
It is probably a legacy of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration that China, and seemingly the US, see Taiwan’s adherence to the “1992 consensus” — or its equivalents — as a prerequisite for effective cross-strait relations.
US experts must have noticed that the differences between the DPP and Beijing that Schrage alluded to are representative of the majority public opinion in Taiwan — a reaction to the rise of Chinese nationalism and Beijing’s assertions that China is entitled to Taiwan. Neither the “1992 consensus” nor any other framework could narrow the differences if it is to be forcibly imposed without respect for mainstream sentiment in Taiwan.
The problem boils down to this: The conflict between the US and Taiwan over differing national interests. Despite causing controversy by seeming to interfere in free elections, the US will still comment about Taiwan’s elections aiming to pursue its interests. Whether Taiwanese voters choose to support US interests, or their own, is in their own hands.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with