Although campaigning for the Nov. 29 nine-in-one elections has not officially started, we can already gauge the strength of the candidates from the different parties in the different counties and cities. Many of the incumbent commissioners and mayors seeking re-election are leaving the competition in the dust, such as Greater Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊), Greater Tainan Mayor William Lai (賴清德) and New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
However, the recent series of public safety accidents have alerted Taiwanese to the fact that electoral outcomes are not carved in stone and that the election outlook could change drastically.
The gas pipeline explosions in Greater Kaohsiung last month were the nation’s biggest petrochemical accident, a disaster that left 30 dead and 310 injured. Although the responsibility for the accident may rest with LCY Chemical Corp, the Greater Kaohsiung Government has long neglected management of the underground pipeline network, in particular through the flawed practice of placing pipelines inside water culverts, therefore the local government might have to share responsibility. Perhaps it is the responsibility of former Kaohsiung mayors who approved the construction, meaning the incident cannot be directly attributed to Chen. However, as the mayor, she must address the victims and take on the responsibility for reconstruction.
The immediate handling of the incident and the central government’s handling of responsibility and assistance will impact on Chen’s approval rating, which remains a little over 60 percent. The success of the reconstruction will affect her election campaign, so the local government is likely to be cautious and do all it can to handle the situation appropriately.
The explosions were followed by several days of rain, compounding the municipality’s problems, whose sewage system had already been severely damaged. The rain also caused floods in Greater Tainan, destroying a flood-diversion channel just 20 days after the NT$1.5 billion (US$49.9 million) project had been completed. After the channel collapsed, it was discovered that there was no rebar in the collapsed concrete section.
Despite the setback, Lai remained calm and said that there was a warranty period during which the contractor would repair the channel without the government spending an extra dollar. However, Lai left for the US without a thorough investigation into the quality of the construction work and how the project was accepted, sparking criticism in media outlets and dissatisfaction among the public.
After arriving in the US, he said that the project was the responsibility of the Water Resources Agency and not the local government, but the flood-prevention issue is still likely to weigh on his re-election bid.
As a result of the explosions in Greater Kaohsiung, the nation is cautious about gas-related safety issues and on Friday last week, soon after Chu requested that all pipelines in New Taipei City be inspected, there was a gas explosion in Sindian District (新店), killing two people. There had been warnings about gas leaks in the area on Thursday last week, so it appears that the accident could have been prevented, but the gas company’s reportedly perfunctory and careless approach resulted in the deaths of two people.
Although Chu was praised for the city’s decision to drop the specialty exam system, the failure to visit the site and the victims of the Sindian explosion until two days after the incident has been criticized, with people saying that the mayor paid more attention to official business than the victims.
The election outlook of a candidate is unpredictable. Disasters test a leader’s ability to think on their feet and act appropriately. Handling a situation successfully will help their prospects, but the slightest mistake can overturn their hopes. Nothing is decided yet and with the elections still more than three months away, whoever is in front would be wise to tread carefully.
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