The vast majority of the 23 million residents of Taiwan regard themselves as Taiwanese and they overwhelmingly reject Chinese annexation of the nation. The Sunflower movement that started with the occupation of the legislature on March 18 by college students and spread rapidly to many sectors of Taiwan’s civil society vividly attests to this.
Taiwan’s situation is precarious. The military balance has clearly shifted in favor of China. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) under President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to surrender Taiwan, by signing a peace accord with Beijing. To this end, Ma is pressing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) at an APEC meeting in November. Because the KMT controls both the executive and legislative branches of government and the mass media, Taiwan’s citizens have few means to resist this momentum toward absorption by China, despite the 500,000-strong protest against the passing of the ill-conceived service trade agreement with China.
If Taiwan was to fall by Chinese military coercion or internal subversion, the US would suffer a geostrategic disaster. The sea lanes and airspace around Taiwan are critical to the survival of Japan and South Korea. Once in control of Taiwan, China would be in a position to pressure Japan and South Korea to become its vassal states. It is most likely that Chinese acquisition of Taiwan would trigger a chain of events resulting in China’s hegemony over East Asia.
The preservation of Taiwan as an independent democracy is in the interests of the US and its democratic allies in Asia precisely because Taiwan’s democracy is a thorn in the side of the CCP.
Taiwan is a beacon of hope for those Chinese who aspire to a more open society with rule of law, freedom of expression and religion, and in which people can freely elect their officials and representatives at all levels of government.
Taiwan’s experience disproves the fallacy that democratic values are incompatible with Asian culture. An independent Taiwan hinders China’s projection of power into the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and safeguards the vital sea lines between Japan and South Korea, so the preservation of Taiwan’s freedom contributes directly to the peace and stability of East Asia and beyond.
Assuming that Washington has the wisdom to realize the importance of Taiwan’s freedom to peace and stability of East Asia and ultimately to the security of the US homeland, what can the US do to preserve Taiwan’s de facto independence from China?
First, the US should make clear its position that the so-called People’s Republic of China government has no legitimate sovereignty over Taiwan. Washington should reiterate the US policy that the future of Taiwan must be resolved peacefully and with the express assent of Taiwanese.
Second, US President Barack Obama’s administration should work with Congress to speed up the sale of advanced fighters and other weapons needed to resist a People’s Liberation Army invasion of Taiwan.
Washington should also initiate high-level contacts between the militaries of the US and Taiwan, to boost Taiwan’s morale and readiness and to help counter any subversive activities within Taiwan. Such exchanges could include port calls by US navy ships.
Third, the US should actively assist Taiwan in reducing its excessive economic dependence on China. Bringing Taiwan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership at an early stage would help.
The acquisition of Taiwan would propel China toward expansionism and eventual conflict with the US.
“Taiwan’s security is ultimately America’s security as well,” late US representative Gerald Solomon said.
Former US president Woodrow Wilson, in a speech before the US Senate in January 1917, proposed a doctrine: “That no nation should seek to extend its policy over any other nations or people, but that every people should be left free to determine its own policy, its own way of development, unhindered, unthreatened, unafraid, the little along with the great and powerful.”
The US should be brave enough to uphold this principle of self-determination for the people of Taiwan, because doing so is ultimately in the US’ best interest.
Former British prime minister Winston Churchill once said the US would eventually do the right thing, but not before exhausting all other possibilities.
In engaging the People’s Republic of China, the foremost objective of the US should not be to avoid Beijing’s displeasure, and the US’ security should not be dependent on China’s goodwill.
Let us hope that the US will do the right thing, sooner rather than later, as the cost of complacency and delay will be high.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator, based in Pennsylvania in the US.
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
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