Long after Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, the destruction it wrought and the cost of post-disaster recovery will still be evident.
The disaster has devastated agriculture, tourism and traditional industries in southern Taiwan. Its impact is likely to have a negative effect on the nation’s third-quarter economic performance after the economy saw a record 10.24 percent year-on-year contraction in the first quarter.
The Council of Agriculture estimated agricultural losses at NT$12.1 billion (US$367 million) as of yesterday afternoon, with 26 percent of farmland in the disaster areas damaged by flooding or mudslides.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said Typhoon Morakot’s damage to power supplies, hydraulic systems and state-owned enterprises would cost at least NT$1.24 billion, while the Ministry of Transportation and Communications said it would need at least NT$20 billion to rebuild broken bridges and roads.
The cost of typhoon-related expenses is expected to rise as the ministries continue to receive damage estimates from subordinate agencies. On Friday, the Executive Yuan said it would propose a special budget of up to NT$110 billion for disaster relief and reconstruction. A special statute allowing for this budget should be presented to the legislature on Thursday.
Although agriculture and tourism are considered to be among the worst-hit sectors, their impact on the nation’s economy will be limited because they comprise a smaller share of GDP. However, in addition to the livelihoods lost, the damage to crops and livestock at key production areas in the south will mean higher prices for vegetables, fruit and meat in the coming weeks.
The economic losses caused by Typhoon Morakot would have been much higher had the typhoon struck the nation’s key manufacturing areas and industrial parks, such as those in Hsinchu and Taichung.
The overall economic impact could be short-lived, as the reconstruction effort, with the spending proposed by the Executive Yuan, could boost domestic investment and contribute to GDP growth in the medium term, offsetting the fallout from lower farming production, paralyzed transportation networks and lower tourism revenue in the south.
As economists wait for the government to release its second-quarter GDP figure and forecasts for the following two quarters and for the whole year on Thursday, it is important to remember that the economic losses are recoverable, even if the reconstruction will be slow. They are also measurable, while the suffering of disaster victims is not.
Looking ahead, one challenge will be implementing post-typhoon reconstruction work and disaster prevention measures. Past investments of billions of dollars have not worked out as expected, casting doubt on government effectiveness and preparedness.
But the biggest challenge is the potential loss of confidence in the government’s crisis management and emergency response ability. President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has shown that it was not capable of handling an emergency of this scale.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reach the point of confidence that they can start and win a war to destroy the democratic culture on Taiwan, any future decision to do so may likely be directly affected by the CCP’s ability to promote wars on the Korean Peninsula, in Europe, or, as most recently, on the Indian subcontinent. It stands to reason that the Trump Administration’s success early on May 10 to convince India and Pakistan to deescalate their four-day conventional military conflict, assessed to be close to a nuclear weapons exchange, also served to
After India’s punitive precision strikes targeting what New Delhi called nine terrorist sites inside Pakistan, reactions poured in from governments around the world. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) issued a statement on May 10, opposing terrorism and expressing concern about the growing tensions between India and Pakistan. The statement noticeably expressed support for the Indian government’s right to maintain its national security and act against terrorists. The ministry said that it “works closely with democratic partners worldwide in staunch opposition to international terrorism” and expressed “firm support for all legitimate and necessary actions taken by the government of India
The recent aerial clash between Pakistan and India offers a glimpse of how China is narrowing the gap in military airpower with the US. It is a warning not just for Washington, but for Taipei, too. Claims from both sides remain contested, but a broader picture is emerging among experts who track China’s air force and fighter jet development: Beijing’s defense systems are growing increasingly credible. Pakistan said its deployment of Chinese-manufactured J-10C fighters downed multiple Indian aircraft, although New Delhi denies this. There are caveats: Even if Islamabad’s claims are accurate, Beijing’s equipment does not offer a direct comparison
To recalibrate its Cold War alliances, the US adopted its “one China policy,” a diplomatic compromise meant to engage with China and end the Vietnam War, but which left Taiwan in a state of permanent limbo. Half a century later, the costs of that policy are mounting. Taiwan remains a democratic, technologically advanced nation of 23 million people, yet it is denied membership in international organizations and stripped of diplomatic recognition. Meanwhile, the PRC has weaponized the “one China” narrative to claim sovereignty over Taiwan, label the Taiwan Strait as its “internal waters” and threaten international shipping routes that carry more
RSS