Cautious optimism is the appropriate response to the US Republican party sharpening its rhetoric in support of Taiwan as part of its presidential campaign.
For Taiwanese who watch US politics, optimism is a precious and fleeting commodity. Not so long ago, it was sensible to assume that the US military intervention in Iraq — and to a lesser extent Afghanistan — would become so repulsive for voting Americans that the proposal to support a small country such as Taiwan against the designs of the Chinese juggernaut in the event of conflict would be laughable.
Adding to the gloom for pro-democracy Taiwanese was the swift retreat by US President George W. Bush, whose early, provocative comments supporting Taiwan gave way to the unenlightened China appeasement that defines the modus vivendi of the Department of State and much of US academia.
Today things are a little different. In the era of President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), China has offered little in the way of political reform, which surprises no one. But Beijing has found that its increasing economic power is beginning to unnerve even its supporters in other administrations — sometimes to become the whipping boy of politicians looking for a sound bite, as Democratic senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton vividly demonstrated a few months ago.
When China irritates people and governments, Taiwan gains. This is because the threat that Taiwan faces turns into a thing that others can appreciate — if only for a moment — in practical terms.
Now, by upping the ante on the political currency of cross-strait conflict, the camp of the Republicans’ presumptive candidate, Senator John McCain, is asking Americans to think carefully about what China is and what it could do, and why Taiwan is inseparable from this issue. The message is abrupt and not without risk, but it is safe to say that the Democrats will respond not by defending China but plugging presidential candidate Obama’s credentials to defend US interests should China become too obnoxious.
Obama’s running partner, Senator Joseph Biden, has traditionally run a line that promotes China and — at best — sidelines Taiwan. In this regard, his point of view is remarkably similar to the ideological basis of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). How this might affect an Obama administration is unclear, though the record to date of Obama’s future advisers on cross-strait matters is disturbing.
Either way, Taiwan and China are developing into a potential wedge issue for the Democrats. For Taiwan, this is not necessarily a good thing because the issue is not crucial to the vote, and because the tenor and content of the debate is completely outside Taiwan’s control. And even if Taipei could do something to tilt public sentiment in the US, it is unlikely that President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration would have the intelligence and ability to seize the initiative.
In his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, Obama warned that the US must learn to face the threats of the future and not be distracted by the mistakes of the past. Obama’s “threats” tend not to be states but extremism, environmental concerns and economic vulnerabilities, yet all of these concerns have a Chinese link.
With luck, the Republicans’ move to turn this into a point of debate will allow more truths about China, Taiwan and their stateside supporters to be aired before the next president takes his post.
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