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Constraints on Ma's leadership cripple him

Voters have decided to embrace a unified government and elected Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to be the next president. With a new mandate, it is Ma's responsibility to tackle the constraints facing him.

The first one is the degree to which he can shoulder the pressure from some KMT old guards who favor quicker talks with Beijing on unification, a common market and a peace agreement in which Taiwan's sovereignty might be sabotaged under China's insistence that Taipei accept the "one China" principle.

The forum between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) -- established by former vice president and KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) in early 2005 -- has served as a platform for Beijing leadership to exert political influence on Ma's camp from the very start.

When Ma jumped on the DPP's political bandwagon by proposing the KMT's referendum version for "returning to the UN" last year, Beijing may well have been pressuring him through Lien, as is implied by the fact that during Lien's last trip to China he did not receive the red carpet treatment he did before.

It is very likely that the CCP-KMT forum will "hijack" Ma to implement the "cross-strait common market" regardless of the disastrous effect it might have on Taiwanese farmers, workers and health and food safety standards -- let alone the threat to national security.

The second challenge for Ma is a powerful KMT headquarters led by KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung(吳伯雄). Wu helped the KMT win both the legislative and presidential polls, which will make the former retiree a key figure within the party.

Unless Ma has the "strong man" style leadership of former KMT presidents Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), the Wu-led KMT headquarters will become another stumbling block and most importantly, the nightmare of the KMT's party-state rule might return.

The third source of troubles is the absolute KMT majority in the legislature. The legislature will become another loose-canon if Ma fails to implement order. The KMT occupied the chairmanships of all eight legislative committees without even sharing a seat with its allies. More pork-barrel legislation will be passed given most of its legislators are closely connected with local "fat cats."

Ma has said President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) "scorched-earth" diplomacy was a key source for undermining cross-strait relations and Taiwan's friendship with the US. He has proposed signing a peace agreement with Beijing to gain more space for Taiwan's international participation on the condition that China remove the missiles it has targeted at Taiwan. He also endorsed the KMT's policy of returning to the so-called "1992 consensus" to restart cross-strait dialogue.

But Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) has already suggested both sides sign a peace agreement under the "one China" principle.

At his post-election press conference, Ma admitted that after his inauguration, it will be very difficult for him to travel abroad. However, Chen has made 14 overseas trips as president and highlighted the importance of Taiwan's democratically elected presidency. Ma should be more aggressive diplomatically. As president, the voters hope he will not only rejuvenate the economy but also stand firm on representing the nation's independent sovereignty to the world.

More likely, however, is that Ma -- surrounded by the old-guard in the KMT -- with his weak personality and inability to safeguard Taiwan's sovereignty, will fail to execute reforms or implement effective management and will lead Taiwan's democracy backwards.

Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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