Can the DPP overcome a drubbing?

How will the DPP's legislative election disaster affect the presidential election? While the KMT has won a morale-lifting victory, the two elections are very different and the result will probably be very close.

First, the legislative elections have been almost entirely local. Candidates have spoken of their contributions to individual schools, roads and flood prevention. There has been virtually no discussion of such national issues as identity, relations with China or relations with the US, Japan and other major democratic countries.

Second, when the campaign between presidential candidates Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) truly gets under way, both candidates will have to speak clearly and to the point about national issues and relations with China.

Though both candidates are moderates in their respective parties, some clear differences will emerge. Hsieh and his co-runner Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) will most likely be able to win the presidential and vice-presidential debates against Ma and his co-runner Vincent Siew (蕭萬長). Ma's inability to debate in the Hoklo language (commonly known as Taiwanese) could also prove a handicap among a wide variety of voters.

Third, with a landslide victory to the KMT in the legislative elections, DPP supporters -- as well as some swing voters -- will fear the KMT's almost total control of the political system in the event of a KMT victory and may rally to support Hsieh to provide some controls over the KMT legislature. On the other hand, some voters may feel that electing Ma will end fractious relations between the executive and the legislature.

Finally, the issue of identity could prove crucial. Ma won the KMT chairmanship on a platform of reform, but after being elected he tended to talk to the old Mainlanders and did not implement any reforms. While Mainlanders, as the minority who have lost their formerly privileged positions, have led the way in "ethnic voting," some ethnic Taiwanese are now questioning whether they can vote for a Mainlander for president. This feeling, too, will help Hsieh.

One final conundrum remains. What will be the role of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in the presidential election now that he has resigned as DPP chairman?

Fairly or not, many believe Chen's campaign efforts in the presidential election have been counter-productive. Will he step out of Hsieh's way and allow Hsieh's more moderate approach to shine through in the campaign?

If so, Taiwan's next president could be Frank Hsieh. If not, then Ma Ying-jeou will succeed Chen.

Bruce Jacobs is professor of Asian languages and studies and director of the Taiwan Research Unit at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.