Over the last several months, a little-known, enigmatic Pakistani general has quietly raised hopes among US officials that he could emerge as a new force for stability in Pakistan, according to current and former government officials. But it remains too early to determine whether he can play a decisive role in the country.
In late November, the general, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, took command of Pakistan's army when the country's longtime military ruler, Pervez Musharraf, resigned as army chief and became a civilian president.
At that time, Kayani, a protege of Musharraf's, became one of Pakistan's most powerful officials.
The Pakistani army has dominated the country for decades and the army chief wields enormous influence. Over time, as Kayani gains firmer control of the army, he is likely to become even more powerful than Musharraf himself.
"Gradually, General Kayani will be the boss," said Talat Masood, a Pakistani political analyst and retired general. "The real control of the army will be with Kayani."
But within weeks, Kayani's loyalties -- and skills -- are likely to come under intense strain. The two civilian political parties that oppose Musharraf are vowing to conduct nationwide street protests if Musharraf's party wins delayed parliamentary elections now scheduled for Feb. 18.
The parties already accuse Musharraf -- who is widely unpopular according to public opinion polls -- of fixing the elections. If demonstrations erupt, Kayani will have to decide whether to suppress them.
What Kayani decides will determine who rules Pakistan, according to Pakistani and US analysts. The decision also could affect whether the country descends into even deeper turmoil.
They predict that Kayani will remain loyal to Musharraf to a certain extent. But they say he will not back Musharraf if his actions are viewed as damaging the army.
"He's loyal to Musharraf to the point where Musharraf is a liability and no longer an asset to the corporate body of the Pakistani military," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA and White House official who is an expert on Pakistan. "They will say `thank you very much for your interest in security affairs. Here is your ticket out of the country."'
As he has risen through the military, Kayani has impressed US military and intelligence officials as a professional, pro-Western moderate with few political ambitions. But the elevation to army chief has been known to change Pakistani officers.
Musharraf was seen as uninterested in politics when he became army chief in 1998. A year later, he orchestrated a coup and began his nine-year-rule of the country.
Kayani has become an increasingly important figure to the administration of US President George W. Bush as Pakistan's instability grows and Musharraf faces intensifying political problems, according to US and Pakistani analysts.
Musharraf's declaration of de facto martial law in November was widely seen in Pakistan as an effort by him to crush his civilian opponents and cling to power, according to public opinion polls.
At the same time, many Pakistanis blame Musharraf for failing to prevent the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto last month. They contend that the government did not provide adequate security.
Kayani's personal views are difficult to discern. Since taking command of the army, he has continued his practice of never granting interviews.
In his first act as army chief, he declared this year the "year of the soldier," an attempt to improve the morale of the Pakistani army.
The army has struggled in combating militants, with more than 1,000 soldiers and police killed since 2001. Last summer, several hundred soldiers surrendered to militants, causing intense concern among Pakistani military officials.
His early political moves as commander were two small gestures that were interpreted as attempts to ease simmering tensions between the government and civilian opposition parties. Following the assassination of Bhutto on Dec. 27, he sent soldiers to place a wreath on her grave and privately met with her husband.
On Thursday, Kayani led the first meeting of Pakistan's corps commanders -- the dozen generals who dominate the military. It was the first time in nine years that Musharraf did not attend. During the meeting, he stressed unity.
"It is the harmonization of sociopolitical, administrative and military strategies that will usher an environment of peace and stability in the long term," the state-run news media quoted Kayani as saying. "Ultimately, it is the will of the people and their support that is decisive."
Raised in a military family, Kayani attended military schools and is seen as loyal to the army as an institution above all else.
His appointment was popular among army officers, some of whom blame Musharraf for hurting the army's image.
His career has included repeated military education in the US. He received training in Fort Benning, Georgia, and graduated from the US Army's Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He also attended a 13-week executive studies course at the Asia Pacific Center of Security Studies in Hawaii in the late 1990s.
In an army deeply enmeshed in Pakistani politics, he has declined to ally himself with any political groups, according to retired Pakistani military officials.
"Kayani throughout his careers has shown little in the way of political inclination," said a senior US military official who has worked extensively with him but did not wish to be identified. "He is a humble man who has shown a decided focus on the soldier."
When he was appointed deputy army chief last fall, his first move was to visit the front lines in the tribal areas. Spending the Muslim holiday Id al-Fitr with soldiers prompted US military officials to praise him as a "soldier's soldier."
In meetings, Kayani is known to listen intently but rarely speak. He is so soft-spoken that one former US official complained that he mumbled, but he expressed confidence in Kayani's ability to lead the army in the fight against militancy.
The senior US military official predicted that the Pakistani army would perform better under Kayani than Musharraf, who was often distracted by politics while serving as both president and army chief.
He praised Kayani for embracing new counterinsurgency training and tactics that could be more effective in countering militants in the country's tribal areas.
But any progress Kayani achieves militarily could be undermined by continuing political turmoil in the country, according to Pakistani analysts.
To end that instability, Kayani might have to strike a "grand bargain" with Pakistan's civilian political parties that would end the army's dominance.
"If Kayani, in a way, tries to promote democracy and becomes the protector of democracy," said Masood, the Pakistani political analyst and retired general. "Then I think Pakistan has a chance."
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