Many commentators on talk shows claim there is no such thing as a "neutral voter" in Taiwan. They define neutral voters as people who do not vote, and say that those who vote are not neutral. But this is inaccurate.
The term "neutral voters" refers to those who have no preference for the pan-blue or pan-green camp. They do not choose a side until the candidates are picked, and some don't make a decision until election day. They account for more than half of all voters.
Most neutral voters are connected to personal networks organized around vote captains, which the pan-blue camp is much better at mobilizing than the green camp. This gives the pan-blue camp a big advantage in local elections. But the influence of personal connections is lower in national elections, and voters are affected by other factors.
Some believe it is easier to attract neutral voters by adopting a "middle way" approach. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (
The middle way was adopted most successfully by former president Lee Teng-hui (
Independent candidates Lin Yang-kang (
Lin and Chen attacked Lee for promoting independence, and Peng attacked him for promoting unification. Lee could be neither pro-independence nor unificationist, so he took the middle way. With the KMT's network, he attracted neutral voters and took 54 percent of the vote.
Although KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan (連戰) also took the middle way in 2000, politically astute independent presidential candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) lured away most of the KMT vote captains. He was able to destroy the party's network and caused the space for a middle way to disappear. The 2004 presidential election turned into a stand-off between President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) on the one hand and the joint Lien-Soong ticket on the other. After the 228 Hand-in-Hand rally caused a sensation, Chen replaced his original middle way approach with a pro-localization line, again causing the middle way to collapse.
Now, although Ma and Hsieh are trying to lean to the center, they are being held back by fundamentalists in each camp.
The main battle will be over "neutral" voters. Despite its networks, the pan-blue camp has two big problems. The first is the old KMT's oppression and the new KMT's inability to distance itself from it. The second is China's suppression of Taiwan, which is leading people to detest that regime, while most people also consider the KMT to be friendly to Beijing.
It is not easy for Ma to draw a line between himself and the old KMT and Beijing. Perhaps his strong point lies in emphasizing similarities with Hsieh to reduce the ideological gap, while attracting neutral voters using the KMT's revitalized networks.
Hsieh must do the opposite: distinguish himself from Ma by reducing similarities. Maybe his only chance to defeat the KMT's network and win the support of neutral voters is to induce ideological confrontation.
But if Ma can convince voters of his "similarities" with Hsieh, he might win, and win easily.
Chen Mao-hsiung is a electrical engineering professor at National Sun Yat-sen University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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