Every time a typhoon hits China we learn of the evacuation of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. These numbers are likely exaggerated, but for a portion of the people affected evacuation is the only option. The problem is that it is impossible to predict who exactly is most at risk until late in the day.
Taiwan cannot perform large-scale evacuations because there is nowhere to evacuate to, and this is even more the case with Super Typhoon Krosa, the radius of which alone almost equals the length of Taiwan.
However, mountain and rural communities and vulnerable people (children, the elderly, the handicapped) in low-caliber urban housing should have the option to evacuate to safer parts of the country.
Unfortunately, and despite warning signs from typhoons in recent years, this is not happening at anywhere near the scale that this super typhoon demands.
Instead, we will be treated to the same TV footage of ministerial officials in rescue uniforms "taking charge" of the crisis in a room surrounded by people of uncertain utility, a public relations stunt that is becoming increasingly risible as the years go by.
With the lack of special preparations, we therefore face a death toll that could have been lower.
There is a chance that the typhoon will defy predictions and head north before the worst of the winds reach land, but for safety's sake a direct strike on northern Taiwan should be assumed -- the latest forecasts suggest that the eye is likely to make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning in the region of eastern Taipei County, Keelung and Ilan County.
It is normally not advisable to exaggerate the potential damage of a typhoon, but in the case of Krosa there is a marked complacency about the level of damage that gusts of between 250kph and 300kph can cause.
That complacency is reflected in a lack of advance information on what to do in case of emergency -- which hospitals or clinics to attend, how to strengthen exposed parts of houses or apartments, what vital supplies should be on hand at home in case it becomes impossible to leave the house, and so on.
With this storm, there is a strong possibility of power and water outages. In the past, these outages have taken many days to fix.
It is advisable therefore that householders have plenty of bottled or boiled water, food, batteries for flashlights and so on, along with a designated safe room in case structures such as outer windows or doors are compromised.
Do not leave a shelter if the eye passes over it. The lull in wind will be followed by winds that are equally destructive and -- worse -- traveling in the opposite direction, potentially finding new weaknesses in already weakened structures.
Further safety and tips in English can be printed from the US National Hurricane Center Web site at www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml. With a storm of this ferocity, and in the absence of proactive officials -- national and local -- no one should wait for government advice.
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