In a lecture in Taiwan, future trend guru John Naisbitt one-sidedly praised China's economic boom, saying that cross-strait economic integration was an inevitable trend. However, he ignored two major problems.
First, more than 60 percent of Taiwanese believe that the economy has already been hurt by overheated cross-strait trade and will suffer even more severely if the trend continues. Therefore, unless Taiwanese are willing to be unified with China, it is practically impossible to integrate the two economies.
Second, China's economy is not as good as Naisbitt says. The book Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain, published by RAND Corp, lists eight major problems with the Chinese economy that will continue to crop up over the next 10 years and which will affect its development. Naisbitt made a point of ignoring these faults.
The first problem listed in the book is unemployment, poverty and social unrest. Poverty in the rural areas has already expanded the urban-rural wealth disparity and has caused problems such as greater population migration, higher unemployment rates, rising crime and social unrest.
Second is the effect of corruption on the economy. If this situation deteriorates further, the distribution of earnings will become even more imbalanced.
Third is the spread of AIDS and epidemic diseases. Estimates by the UN and other sources put annual deaths from HIV/AIDS in China between 1.7 million to 2.7 million in the second decade of the 21st century, resulting in annual reductions in GDP growth between 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent from 2002 to 2015.
Fourth, water and environmental pollution. China is encumbered by unequally distributed natural water sources in the south and north. This problem could reduce China's GDP growth by 1.5 percent to 1.9 percent per year over the next decade.
Fifth, prices and consumption of resources. Within the next decade, global oil supply is forecast to shrink about 25 percent, decreasing China's average yearly economic growth rate by 1.2 percent to 1.4 percent.
Sixth, the fragility of China's financial system and state-run enterprises. The high rate of bad loans in China's state-run banks demonstrates a weak spot in the state-run financial system. Financial crises and shrinking credit could reduce total productivity 0.3 percent, in turn shrinking the yearly capital growth rate and lowering the yearly GDP growth rate 0.5 percent to 1 percent.
Seventh, a possible drop-off in foreign direct investment. Tension created by China's ruling class, the possibility of financial crises, the inability to exchange the yuan, China's delayed implementation of its WTO promises and changes in the Eastern European and Indian investment environment could all seriously shrink direct foreign investment. This could lead to a 0.6 percent to 1.6 percent yearly reduction in China's GDP growth rate.
Eighth, Taiwan and other potential conflicts. If future deterioration in cross-strait ties leads China to isolate Taiwan militarily, it will have an impact on China's stock market, exchange rate, military budget, personal savings and and overall productivity.
Naisbitt just happened to avoid these major problems during his lecture and question-and-answer session. I don't know if he truly doesn't understand the fragile side of China's economic development, or if he simply chose to ignore it. But it is certain that he lacks a clear understanding of Taiwanese society. One must already have a certain "Mind Set," which also is the title of his latest book, to keep emphasizing the importance of cross-strait economic integration, and to so seriously misunderstand Taiwan's future economic "trends."
Michael Lin is a political commentator.
Translated by Marc Langer
There is much evidence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is sending soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and is learning lessons for a future war against Taiwan. Until now, the CCP has claimed that they have not sent PLA personnel to support Russian aggression. On 18 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy announced that the CCP is supplying war supplies such as gunpowder, artillery, and weapons subcomponents to Russia. When Zelinskiy announced on 9 April that the Ukrainian Army had captured two Chinese nationals fighting with Russians on the front line with details
On a quiet lane in Taipei’s central Daan District (大安), an otherwise unremarkable high-rise is marked by a police guard and a tawdry A4 printout from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating an “embassy area.” Keen observers would see the emblem of the Holy See, one of Taiwan’s 12 so-called “diplomatic allies.” Unlike Taipei’s other embassies and quasi-consulates, no national flag flies there, nor is there a plaque indicating what country’s embassy this is. Visitors hoping to sign a condolence book for the late Pope Francis would instead have to visit the Italian Trade Office, adjacent to Taipei 101. The death of
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), joined by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), held a protest on Saturday on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei. They were essentially standing for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is anxious about the mass recall campaign against KMT legislators. President William Lai (賴清德) said that if the opposition parties truly wanted to fight dictatorship, they should do so in Tiananmen Square — and at the very least, refrain from groveling to Chinese officials during their visits to China, alluding to meetings between KMT members and Chinese authorities. Now that China has been defined as a foreign hostile force,
On April 19, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) gave a public speech, his first in about 17 years. During the address at the Ketagalan Institute in Taipei, Chen’s words were vague and his tone was sour. He said that democracy should not be used as an echo chamber for a single politician, that people must be tolerant of other views, that the president should not act as a dictator and that the judiciary should not get involved in politics. He then went on to say that others with different opinions should not be criticized as “XX fellow travelers,” in reference to
RSS