For six years, Europeans have pleaded with US President George W. Bush to seize the initiative in the campaign against global warming. Now that he has, many here are even more frustrated.
Bush's unexpected announcement on Thursday -- that the US would gather the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases to seek a long-term global reduction in emissions -- has thrown Washington's European allies, particularly Germany, off balance.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be host this week to the G8 meeting with the leaders of the world's richest nations, at which she plans to push for much the same goal as Bush, although her plan would require a sharp reduction in emissions. Bush's vaguely worded proposal -- which has so far steered clear of such caps -- has muddied what had been shaping up as a black-and-white showdown between Europe and the US.
German Environmental Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned that Bush's plan might prove to be a "Trojan horse," impeding her efforts to reach an agreement on an ambitious plan to decrease emissions, while defusing criticism that the US is a hurdle to the broader climate effort.
The news media was notably skeptical: "Bush torpedoes Merkel's climate plans," said a representative headline in the German financial paper Handelsblatt.
But for Merkel's chief climate advisor, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Bush's plan was a welcome sign that the US had re-engaged in the debate, even if he disagreed with its approach.
"It's clearly an indication that the Bush administration wants to contribute to solving the problem," Schellnhuber said in an interview. "It's a steep learning curve, and when you are on a learning curve, you may not come up with the right solution the first time."
Merkel, supported by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other European leaders, wants to set a global target to cut emissions 50 percent from 1990 levels by 2050. In a draft communique for the G8 meeting, German negotiators also propose increasing energy efficiency 20 percent by 2020.
The Bush administration favors a piecemeal approach, in which countries would set their own targets for the next 10 years to 20 years to reduce emissions based on their economic circumstances.
A long-term "aspirational" global target, decades further out, would be sought based on what countries agreed would be the best way to limit climate risks.
Schellnhuber, who played a role in developing the Kyoto Protocol, said he presented a proposal not unlike Bush's to Merkel several months ago as a "Plan B," if she was not able to rally support for a more ambitious "Plan A."
"I said to the chancellor, `If we cannot get a concrete, top-down approach, the second-best solution is a bottom-up approach, with midterm commitments by countries,'" he said. "But you need a system for adding this up, and orienting it to a larger goal that makes sense."
Negotiators for the White House wrote last month that the German draft proposal "crosses multiple `red lines' of what we simply cannot agree to," adding: "We have tried to `tread lightly,' but there is only so far we can go, given our fundamental opposition to the German position."
That rebuff angered German diplomats, stiffening their resolve to push for concrete emissions reductions regardless of whether they provoked a clash with the US or spoiled the mood at Heiligendamm, the Baltic Sea resort that is the site of the G8 conference.
"The US and Europe were like two cars racing toward each other in a game of chicken," Schellnhuber said.
Now, he said, there might be room for compromise, though he acknowledged the gulf was still wide. Merkel, who welcomed Bush's speech as an "important statement," nevertheless gave no indication that she was willing to yield on her goal of a 50 percent cut in emissions.
A spokesman for Merkel, Ulrich Wilhelm, said, "I think we can say at this stage that it's going to be tough, that we face very intense negotiations."
Other German officials, including the government's chief negotiator, Bernd Pfaffenbach, said the talks could collapse altogether.
That would be a rare setback for Merkel, who has made climate change the centerpiece of Germany's dual presidency of the G8 and the EU. In March, she won a landmark agreement that set a binding target for use of renewable energy in Europe.
A deadlock would suit critics of the Bush administration, who say their greatest fear is that Europe will water down its targets or accept bland diplomatic language as a substitute.
"The G8 text is the litmus test," said Stephan Singer, head of climate policy at WWF, formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund, in Brussels, Belgium.
Critics also say that Bush's proposal to seek a global deal by the end of next year would undermine the role of the UN as the main forum for negotiations, including the talks that led to the Kyoto Protocol, which required participating industrialized nations to reduce emissions. Convening the largest emitters in the US would create a parallel round of talks, they said.
"Our first point is that this must happen within the context of the UN," said Michael Mueller, Germany's deputy environmental minister. "Our second point is that to wait until 2008 is too long."
Senior White House officials denied on Friday that there was any intent to undermine UN-sponsored talks under the original climate treaty, the Framework Convention on Climate Change, or the addendum called the Kyoto Protocol. (Under former US president Bill Clinton, the US signed that protocol, but it was never ratified and was rejected by Bush.)
"We fully expect that these discussions will feed into the UN process," said James Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality.
He said the result could be part of a new protocol to succeed the Kyoto pact after its terms expire in 2012 or a set of separate nonbinding policies, another option allowed under the convention.
"People should take a look, give us the benefit of a doubt," he said. "It's the outcome that people should pay the most attention to."
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