Last year, the US think tank RAND Corp issued a report titled Leveraging America's Aircraft Carrier Capabilities that considered several war scenarios, among them war in the Taiwan Strait.
In the scenario, Taipei reacts to China's refusal to allow the Taiwanese team to participate in next year's Olympic Games in Beijing by declaring its "new national status." A few weeks after the games, China announces a major military exercise north and east of Taiwan and demands immediate unification talks with Taiwan, which the Taiwanese government refuses.
On Jan. 15, 2009, China seizes two Taiwanese freighters and escorts them to a Chinese port, where, after inspection, the Chinese army announces that the cargo contained weapons and declares an immediate economic blockade of Taiwan. The entire Chinese army then mobilizes. The Taiwanese government also announces mobilization, declares martial law and calls for assistance from the US and the UN. The US president dispatches several carrier strike groups, long-range bombers and two marine expeditionary units to the western Pacific region, albeit not to Taiwan itself.
In response to US military pressure, China immediately declares that the US' activities amount to intervention in China's domestic affairs, while the Chinese ambassador to Japan submits a document to the Japanese government demanding that Tokyo remain neutral, warning that allowing the US to use Japanese military bases would be interpreted as an act of war against China.
On Jan. 20, Beijing launches a military attack on Taiwan. The Chinese army fires 200 conventional missiles at Taiwan's military bases, control centers and important economic centers. Thirty minutes after the initial attack, 250 fighter aircraft strike in an attempt to completely destroy Taiwan's military bases. Later the same day, a Taiwanese freighter is sunk about 320km east of Taiwan, probably by a Chinese submarine. As a result of the open hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, the US president orders the US military to take action to stop China from invading Taiwan. At this time, the Japanese government informs the US that unless it receives the approval of the Diet, Tokyo will not be able to grant the US access to military bases in Japan, while expressing the hope that the US will understand the heavy Chinese pressure on Japan.
This is where the RAND scenario ends. The report concludes that although the US has a naval and aerial advantage, a military conflict between the US and China would be extremely fierce, since China would be the most powerful enemy the US has faced in recent years. The reasons for this view are as follows.
First, the Chinese have an effective system for monitoring US warships. Second, China has a large number of warships, submarines and attack aircraft -- enough to deal the US navy a heavy blow. In addition, China's land-based anti-aircraft system cannot be ignored. Finally, just like the US Department of Defense, RAND believes that the risk of China using nuclear weapons cannot be eliminated. China may use nuclear weapons detonated on the ground or in the air to attack US control and intelligence-gathering systems, thus striking a destructive blow to US military capabilities.
War games such as Taiwan's annual Han Kuang series of exercises are a useful means of testing the worth of strategies that may one day have to be put into action in an actual conflict. But in its efforts to draw up plans to cope with a potential Chinese attack, the Ministry of Defense would do well to also pay attention to scenarios such as the one described by RAND.
Cheng Ta-chen is an independent defense analyst.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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