Other Lebanese political parties agreed that Hezbollah could keep its weapons to fight there -- but only on condition that it keep the peace on the rest of the border. That is the condition Nasrallah violated by ordering an attack on an Israeli patrol nowhere near the Sheba farms and launching rockets into Israeli territory. With that, Hezbollah threw away its political position in Lebanon.
For the current Israeli coalition government headed by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, matters are relatively simple. It ordered the withdrawal from Gaza in order to stop the cycle of violence there, on the presumption that Israeli territory proper would not be attacked. But the possibility of attack was of course anticipated, and military planners determined that the only possible response was to counterattack as heavily and for as long as might be needed, until Palestinian attacks would stop, whether from exhaustion or agreement.
Hamas' control of the Palestinian Authority does not diminish or increase the need for Israeli military action, but it does increase its political benefits, because the fighting and destruction tells Gaza's population that their rulers are endangering their physical survival.
Israel's opportunity
As for Hezbollah, the Israeli military response is by no means confined to retaliation. Over the years, Hezbollah has received and stored several thousand rockets and some one hundred longer-range missiles from Iran. Recently, and very revealingly, two Iranian leaders threatened Israel with bombardment by Hezbollah's rockets if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear installations. Thus, Israel is using the opportunity brought by the current fighting to search out and destroy Hezbollah's underground and other hidden sites where it keeps its rockets and missiles.
Israel's political aim is to destroy Hezbollah's position as a legitimate Lebanese political party by exposing it as the paid agent of Iran, which serves foreign interests at grievous cost to Lebanon. So Israel is blocking Lebanon's ports from the sea, has breached the runways of all three jet-capable airfields, including Beirut's international airport, and remains ready to destroy generating plants and other high-value targets, if necessary, to generate sufficient political pressure on Hezbollah.
If Lebanon's political forces and Nasrallah's followers cannot get him to revert to a truce, Israel will bomb more targets, including Nasrallah's offices in south Beirut. If more missiles are launched, Israel will cross the border deep into Lebanese territory.
Of course, in both Gaza and southern Lebanon, the outcome is pre-determined by the one-sided military balance. The only open question in both places is how much damage Israel will need to inflict to obtain new ceasefires.
Edward Luttwak, a military strategist and consultant, is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington. Copyright: Project Syndicate
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