Finally, the uncertainty of the outcome reflects not so much voters' behavior, but a change in the electoral system. During the past decade, Italy has used a majority electoral system corrected by a proportional quota. Under this system, Casa della Liberte translated a small popular majority in 2001 into a decisive parliamentary majority. But, with the same result on the horizon this year for l'Unione, the center-right parliamentary majority changed the electoral law just a few months before the end of its term.
This is reminiscent of an army that, fearing defeat on the battlefield, poisons the wells as it retreats. A proportional system in the absence of individual preferences means that party secretaries, rather than citizens, will choose deputies, and, with no effective electoral threshold, the number of parties will proliferate. Although the election ballot will be 40cm long to accommodate all the symbols of the old and new parties, it won't contain the name of even a single candidate.
But the worst problem is that the majority system for the Senate could lead to a different majority gaining control there than in the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house), which may well cause legislative paralysis. Moreover, President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi's mandate ends at the same time that parliament dissolves, which means that his successor, elected by the new parliament, would have to nominate a government without a majority in both houses.
Berlusconi and Prodi have ruled out a German-style grand coalition -- an outcome that seems especially unlikely following an election campaign in which both contestants have strongly hinted that their opponent has no legitimate right to govern. At the same time, holding another vote would leave the question of the electoral law unresolved.
The puzzle of Berlusconi's survival reflects a wider European conundrum. Many Europeans, not just Italians, are nervous and unsure of where the continent is going. So it is no surprise that an opportunist and charlatan like Berlusconi continues to get a hearing. Italians must decide upon the sort of Italy they want if they are to get the leaders they need.
Ferdinando Targetti is professor of economics at the University of Trento and a former member of the finance committee in the Italian parliament. Copyright: Project Syndicate
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