Taiwan's per capita GDP reached US$1,000 in 1976. Three years later, a clash between police and pro-democracy demonstrators -- the Kaohsiung Incident -- took place in Kaohsiung City. Taiwan's Gini coefficient (an internationally accepted measurement of income inequality) was at the time much lower than 0.4, a warning level.
In 2003, China's per capita GDP exceeded US$1,000. This year, China's Gini coefficient has exceeded 0.45. Some academics even believe the number could be as high as 0.5, which is very close to Latin America's 0.522, a continent that has often experienced social unrest.
Will China disintegrate as a result of environmental problems? Jared Diamond, professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles, identifies a host of environmental issues plaguing China in his book entitled Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. These problems include air pollution, loss of biodiversity, disappearing cropland, desertification, disappearing wetlands, grassland degradation, invasive species, overgrazing, salinization, soil erosion and trash accumulation, among others. Diamond adds that "Since China's environmental problems are so shocking, aren't Chinese worried about them?
Will China disintegrate owing to economic problems? Glen Hubbard, the most influential economic adviser to the US government, pointed out in a recent edition of BusinessWeek magazine that "China still lacks an effective financial system. China's banking system is particularly vulnerable. I fear that its vulnerable financial system cannot sustain its continued economic growth."
Will China disintegrate as a result of social problems? Chinese political commentator Liu Xiaobo (
The Chinese government recorded 87,000 public protests last year, a massive increase from the 76,000 recorded the previous year. The number of government officials arrested on corruption charges reached 8,400 last year.
Will China disintegrate as a result of democracy, freedom or human rights issues? According to World Freedom 2005 published by Freedom House, China is one of the 49 nations among the world's 192 countries that is "not free." The Worldwide Press Freedom Index 2005 published by Reporters Without Borders ranked China 159th among the 167 countries listed for press freedom. In Hong Kong, media reports also suggest that protests to protect the rights of local residents are spreading rapidly in China.
Will China disintegrate as a result of its military issues? Last month, Dan Blumenthal, a renowned US official proficient in Asian issues, said, "I am more worried about a conflagration in the East China Sea than in the Taiwan Strait." The question is whether or not China will be able to sustain the huge price if it decides to wage war.
On the economic front, China has seemingly fared well in recent years. However, the aforementioned environmental and other issues are going from bad to worse. It remains to be seen how these phenomena play out and when China is going to reach the critical point that causes it to disintegrate.
Lee Yung-ming is an associate professor in the Department of Aerospace and Systems Engineering at Feng Chia University.
Translated by Daniel Cheng
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with