For the Bush administration, 2006 is shaping up as a make-or-break year in Iraq, a year when Iraqis take ownership of a democracy built with US treasure and troops, or Washington loses a second chance for success in the costly undertaking.
Intersecting factors in Iraq and at home make this year pivotal. The first permanent postinvasion government offers hope for Iraqi political stability even in the face of unabated sectarian violence. At the same time, the Bush administration faces growing domestic pressure to reduce the US troop presence.
Within the administration, there is an urgency to get it right this time, after the stumbles and false starts of the US-run Coalition Provisional Authority and more than a year of Iraqi-led caretaker governments.
Some officials talk of "restarting the clock" in Iraq. Others say 2006 represents an opportunity to capitalize on existing policies.
"This is the year that we are going to try to sustain the accomplishments on the political, economic and security tracks," said James Jeffrey, the State Department senior adviser for Iraq, in an interview.
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The latest report from the US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction warns that 2006 will be a critical year of transition in Iraq. It questions, though, whether the Iraqi government has the resources to rebuild and protect the infrastructure, develop the country's major cities and support private-sector projects.
"The successful December 2005 elections launched Iraq into a new phase of its history," Special Inspector General Stuart Bowen told Congress last week. "The first government elected under Iraq's new constitution is now forming and will soon assume responsibility for managing Iraq's economy and infrastructure."
Bowen said it will take far more US support before the Iraqi government can take control over billions of dollars in reconstruction projects, including problem-plagued oil and electricity improvements.
As the third anniversary of the US invasion approaches, US President George W. Bush himself has acknowledged unanticipated setbacks in what he knows is an unpopular war.
"I know that this war is controversial, yet being your president requires doing what I believe is right and accepting the consequences," Bush said last December, during a drive to revive public support.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was expected to echo that caution when she testified on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and yesterday, while praising Iraqi progress toward inclusive democracy and expressing confidence in US-led reconstruction efforts.
In November, the Republican-led Senate illustrated how growing US costs in Iraq have taken a political toll at home.
Senators voted 79-19 that this year "should be a period of significant transition to full Iraqi sovereignty," with Iraqi forces taking the lead in providing security to create the conditions for the phased redeployment of US forces.
New White House requests would boost total spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan well past the US$400 billion mark. Lawmakers who have voted repeatedly for more funding have told the administration that they are alarmed.
More than 2,260 members of the US military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war. All signs point to a major drawdown of US troops in Iraq this year -- perhaps to fewer than 100,000 by year's end, down from last year's base force of 138,000.
Top US generals say troop withdrawals are contingent on progress in training and deploying Iraqi soldiers. It also depends on the ability of the Iraqis to put together a government that can win the trust of disaffected Sunni Arabs, the backbone of the insurgency.
Rice has said there is a risk of losing momentum after December's successful elections in Iraq, the first with meaningful Sunni participation. The US ambassador in Baghdad continues to push the major ethnic factions -- Shiite Arabs, Kurds and Sunnis -- to stick to business, but a functioning Iraqi-run government with no overt US participation could still be months away.
CORRUPTION
US officials say endemic corruption remains a major problem for political progress and for making nuts-and-bolts improvements to Iraq's moth-eaten systems for electricity, water and other basic services.
Meanwhile, a Bush administration plan to strengthen expertise and accountability in the key Iraqi Interior and Defense ministries has suffered from delays and bureaucratic disputes between Washington and US officials in Baghdad, and between the Pentagon and the State Department.
Frederick Barton, co-director of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, sees US involvement in Iraq at a watershed this year.
"We still have opportunities in Iraq because we've made such a huge effort," in money, lives and political capital, Barton said. "So far the huge effort hasn't really produced a decisive result, either positive or negative, so it means that everything is still up for grabs."
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