The Mainland Affairs Council announced on Wednesday that effective Sept. 25 chartered cargo planes might fly to Shanghai with brief stopover in either Hong Kong or Macau. This is obvious attempt by the Chen Shui-bian (
The move is conservative in nature. It is limited in nature -- it's only for Taiwanese cargo carriers, there will only be one flight per day and there is only one destination, Shanghai -- and capable of implementation without the touchy issue of cross-strait negotiations over aviation rights and air links. The only real difference with the new policy is that cargo carriers won't have to change planes in Hong Kong and Macau.
Yet, this seemingly small step will bring economic benefits. One-way air shipment of cargo between Taiwan and Shanghai with a stopover and a change of plane in either Hong Kong or Macau takes about 12 hours. Under the new policy the trip will take just five or six hours and save between US$50,000 to US$80,000 in costs. Since the new policy is limited to cargo shipments, there will be fewer national security, sanitary and health concerns involved.
Although there has been no official response from Beijing to the council's announcement, there does not appear to be a convincing reason for the Chinese government to object. After all, this is merely one small step up from the cross-strait chartered flights for Taiwanese businesspeople that were arranged earlier this year for the Lunar New Year holiday.
The only real potential ground for protests by Beijing is that the plan is one way, with no provision for Chinese air carriers or flights from China. The exclusion of Chinese air carriers from the Lunar New Year charters already triggered complaints and the sense of dissatisfaction could only be greater this time.
The final decision on the plan, however, rests with Beijing.
As much as Chinese leaders may not wish to help Chen improve cross-strait relations before the next presidential election, they must face the reality that Chen is a key contender in that election. Beijing must keep in mind that if it refuses to cooperate this time, all prospect of direct links within the next four years may be lost if Chen is re-elected.
Of course, the real target of this plan is Taiwan's moderate voters, who have repeatedly indicated support for direct links -- as long as national security is safeguarded. Chen is demonstrating to them that he knows how to gradually implement direct links.
Pro-independence supporters, who typically oppose direct links, can be convinced to bottle their dissatisfaction on the grounds that very little is being given away here compared with the more pressing issue of winning the election.
As for pro-unification backers, they will never be happy with anything that Chen does, so there is no need to try to please them.
All in all, indirect cargo flights are not a bad idea. Whether the plan will have its intended effects, only time will tell.
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