China's Vice President Hu Jintao (
Looking at China's political scene, Hu undoubtedly stands at the forefront among those in a position to become a fourth-generation leader. But as Western China-watchers have noted, although China has rules governing the process of succession, non-institutional power relationships are frequently more important than any precedents.
This being the case, while Hu has long been seen as a popular choice, at what point will President Jiang Zemin (
China has always relied on a traditional model when it comes to succession. The current leader elevates several possible candidates and carefully observes their performance while examining how well they are received by other party elders.
Only after a period of transition will the final candidate appear on stage, but what is worth noting is that those who stand aside for the new leader don't necessarily lose their power. They continue to occupy certain posts and are still able to exert influence.
Therefore, the relationship between Jiang and Hu may operate along the lines of this old model, with Jiang set to announce his resignation from the position of general secretary of the Communist Party at the party's 16th national congress next fall, at the same time announcing Hu's succession.
Nevertheless, China's three key political figures today -- Jiang , Premier Zhu Rongji (
Actually, in light of the fact that China is facing yet another crucial moment, the heavyweights are all the less likely to give up their political influence. The "crucial moment" involves China's preparations to use its geographical advantages to bargain with the US as part of the global anti-terrorist movement in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US. Possible bargaining points include US arms sales to Taiwan and restrictions on US arms sales to China.
In addition, after China enters the WTO, how will the problem of increasing numbers of workers laid off from state-run enterprises be solved? Will China's poor farmers, who number more than the entire US population, become a new social problem? Finally, how can a smooth advance of preparations for the 2008 Olympic Games be ensured?
All of these issues will be impossible for a new successor to confront independently before securing the foundations of his power. The political influence of the three political heavyweights, therefore, can only be expected to increase in the near future.
Supposing that Hu does smoothly succeed Jiang, there is still another question as to what other influences will be brought to bear on Chinese politics. According to China's unwritten rules of political succession, members of the Politburo must be under 70. Those who should resign at the same time as Jiang, then, include two-thirds of the the body's current members. The process of succession, therefore, will create space for a younger group of leaders to come to the fore.
The question that merits our attention is what kind of leaders these new voices will be. Will the ranks of the technocrats be strengthened? Or will the local political elite gain the upper hand?
It won't be difficult to see the direction politics is taking by looking at how the center cultivates people politically from different social roles.
China's second-generation leader Deng Xiaoping (
Jiang, who later began to interact in new ways with the US and who led China to a successful Olympic bid, increased his prestige within the party significantly. What Deng did for Jiang might now be done by Jiang for Hu.
The appearance of China's new leader won't be like the election of a new leader in a democratic society, when reforms are carried out in a sweeping manner on the basis of one's political platform. After all, China's new leader is still a product of the old political system.
Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer residing in Beijing.
Translated by Ethan Harkness
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with