US President-elect George W. Bush gave an important foreign policy speech at the Reagan Library in November 1999, in which he stated: "China is a competitor, not a strategic partner." Bush also said that the US must honor its promise to the people of Taiwan to deny the right of Beijing to impose rule on a free people and to help Taiwan to defend itself.
In its Dec. 18 report to Congress, the Pentagon said that helping Taiwan to maintain a self-defense capability is in the US interest. On Dec. 14, General Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that China may emerge as a new Soviet Union and a threat to regional stability. Writing on the editorial page of the Washington Times ("Defending Taiwan," Jan. 9), Senator Jesse Helms, chairman of the foreign relations committee, urged early implementation of the provisions of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act to deter a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
In April, the Pentagon will decide on Taiwan's request for the purchase of arms. It is likely the new Bush administration will review and adjust US policy towards Taiwan. This is the time for the Taipei government to solidify its friendship with the US by emphasizing the democratic values shared by the two and Taiwan's commitment to defend its freedom. From this perspective, President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) New Year's Eve message was counter-productive. Chen expressed his hope that economic and cultural integration of China and Taiwan will gradually result in political integration. Integration can easily be interpreted as synonymous with unification. Taken together with Chen's plan to relax the "no haste, be patient" (戒急用忍) policy and his administration's eagerness to implement direct trade, transportation and communications links with China as quickly as possible, the message can be considered a policy of speedy and peaceful unification with China.
Indefinite preservation of the status quo, de facto independence, for example, has seemingly been ruled out. Chen's message is contrary to the will of the people because a vast majority of the Taiwanese reject rule by the repressive Chinese Communist Party. It is also against democratic principles to deny people their right to self-determination by pre-judging their choice. At a time when Taipei needs to build up the people's morale, such a message destroys self-confidence and fans anti-China sentiment. After all, if the best thing the Taiwanese can hope for is peaceful surrender of their freedom and personal property, then what good is the Chen administration?
Chen's message also cuts down international support for Taiwan by promoting the perception that the Taiwanese lack the courage to defend their freedom. William Kirby, director of the Harvard University Asia Center, says that Taiwan is falling inexorably into the grip of Chinese power. He argues that Taiwan can do little more than descend slowly into that grip.
China will not have the military capability to successfully invade Taiwan for another 4 to 5 years. It is futile to try to placate China with progressively greater concessions. China can be satisfied only with immediate, total surrender of Taiwan's sovereignty. Until there is a clear consensus among an informed citizenry regarding Taiwan's future and until China irrevocably commits itself to the path of democratization so that Beijing's promises become more credible, it is not prudent for the government to rush into a substantive dialog with Beijing. The Chen government's foremost tasks should be to bolster national defense, develop a Taiwan-centric economy and combat "black-gold" politics. It is high time relations with China took a back seat.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with