Taiwan's recent political turmoil, stock market slump and various other developments have been quite dazzling. Whatever the reasons for them, they point to one thing: instability.
Who will be the happiest to observe Taiwan's instability? China, of course. When asked by Hong Kong reporters (during a trip to Brunei) about the situation facing Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), China's President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) said, "Taiwan seems to be very unstable at present." Though Jiang may not have been gloating, he was obviously concerned about the situation. One of Beijing's criteria for waging a war against Taiwan, as spelled out in its white paper, is "if serious social disorder occurs in Taiwan." In light of this, the overtones of Jiang's remarks are very clear.
There are three reasons why China is happy about Taiwan's instability. First, if Taiwan meets the above criterion, China will be able to justify the use of force. Though we have not seen a real determination on the Chinese side to start a war, the situation is likely to change the various criteria are met.
A few days ago, Zhang Wannian (張萬年), one of China's top military leaders, said, "There will be a war across the Taiwan Strait within the next five years." It is possible that Zhang's claim is simply a resort to sensationalism and that Zhang himself does not play a very important role in Beijing's policy-making process. But he does represent the belligerent elements that may put pressure on Jiang.
Second, Taiwan's political turmoil is a great opportunity for China to play its tricks and sow discord. When Beijing says it has "placed its hope in the Taiwanese people," it means "in the people of Taiwan who are sympathetic to unification."
Since iron-fisted measures, such as missile tests and verbal threats, are no longer effective, China has embarked on "soft" strategies. It is, for example, using special investment incentives to attract Taiwanese businessmen. Beijing's primary goal is to cultivate a force dependent upon and fearful of China, and, through this, to expand its influence over Taiwan. While Taiwan's political parties and their supporters are fighting each other, China can take the opportunity and step up its propaganda campaign.
Third, Taiwan's political turbulence allows Beijing to fend off the impact at home of Taiwan's democratization. Taiwan's transition of power was a blow to the legiti-macy of communist rule in China. Pro-democracy factions in China have become more and more interested in Taiwan's political development. This has created pressure on China's authoritarian rulers. Grassroots-level public concern about Taiwan has become a worry. Now, with Taiwan worried about a recall motion, China has set its propaganda machine at full blast, denouncing the "hypocrisy of Taiwan's so-called democracy experience" and emphasizing that Taiwan's experience is a warning sign that a democratic system will bring social turmoil. Beijing used the same strategies during the painful transition period in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. To some extent, they have proven to be effective.
As far as I know, liberal intellectuals in China generally hope for Taiwan's democratic politics to develop on a more stable path so that it can exert a positive influence on China.
I said a long time ago that if one day the authoritarian regime in Beijing swallows up Taiwan, it will be because of domestic turmoil in Taiwan. Only if Taiwan becomes consumed by endless political infighting will China be able forcibly to impose unification on it. At that time, Taiwan's political organizations will find out that the fishermen have benefited from the fight between the oyster and the crane. But then, it will be too late for regrets.
Wang Dan was a student leader during the 1989 Tienanmen Square demonstrations. He is now a graduate student at Harvard University.
Translated by Gatian Wang
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