On Jan. 30, 1995, Jiang Zemin (
Mao believed that "Taiwan is a small issue and the world is a big one." By allying with the US against the Soviet Union, Mao tried to stop the expansion of the Soviet empire around the world. Under the larger triangular relationship between the US, China and the Soviet Union, Mao and Nixon built a smaller triangle of Taiwan-US-China relations. The US established ambassador-level liaison offices with communist China, while still maintaining formal diplomatic relations with the ROC. That was a time of stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Along with Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski, Deng broke the stability framework of the small triangle -- Taiwan-US-China relations -- set up by Mao and Nixon.
An advocate of quick unification, Deng moved Mao's 100-year unification schedule ahead overnight, making it one of the "three major missions of the 1980s." Deng seemed to believe that Carter's severing of diplomatic relations with Taiwan, withdrawal of troops, and abolishment of treaties would pressure his old Moscow schoolmate Chiang Ching-kuo (
Seeing that Chiang had ignored him, Deng withdrew his "reunification timetable." Even though he did not promise to renounce the use of force, Deng at least never raised his guns to scare the Taiwanese and blackmail the US.
Politically, Jiang is an opportunist. But militarily, he is an adventurist. The Taiwan government embarked on constitutional reform and terminated its general mobilization against communist rebellion, ending Taiwan's status as a military base for an alien government mulling on retaking the mainland. Instead, the Taiwan government became an independent sovereign state, a modern democracy that is not subordinate to any foreign country. The Taiwanese people cannot possibly accept "unification" with a communist authoritarian state. Therefore, Jiang has to use strategies both soft and hard -- political deception and military threats. On the one hand, he must trumpet his eight-point "peaceful unification" policy. On the other hand, he must raise his guns and threaten both the Taiwanese people and the US.
First of all, Jiang proposed a "gradual" realization of "peaceful unification" in his eight points. In this regard, the first step was to "formally end enmities, enter into negotiations, and reach an agreement." This amounts to shackling Taiwan to the one-China framework with an "agreement," causing Taiwan to lose its status as an independent sovereign state.
Secondly, Jiang also said in his eight points that "political differences should not affect economic cooperation; as a long-term policy is pursued to encourage Taiwan businesses to invest." In fact, it is a form of "united front" war designed to win support from Taiwan businesses as well as politicians, scholars and media people who share a common interest with these businesses.
Thirdly, while pursuing these political and economic policies, China wields its iron hand in the area of military diplomacy, strengthening its military threats and diplomatic siege. Mao pursued a low-key, "dug-in" strategy as a policy against Soviet invasion, whereas Deng centered on economic development, downsized the military and cut its spending. In contrast, Jiang raised an "extroverted" military expansionist strategy, increasing the defense budget every year and purchasing massive amounts of strategic and offensive weapons from Russia. Under Jiang, China also showed off its military might to Taiwan, the US, and the rest of the world, while fanning the fires of belligerent nationalism domestically. When Mao said, "Prepare for war," he meant prepare for a foreign invasion. Jiang is the first warmonger in the history of communist China, actively encouraging an outward invasion of other states.
Fourthly, taking advantage of the US president's ignorance and softness, Jiang plays on teaming up with the US to pressure Taiwan. China has been using Clinton's "one-China" and "three no's" policies to pressure democratic Taiwan. Browbeating Lee Teng-hui (
The fifth anniversary of Jiang's declaration of his eight points coincides with the final stage of the presidential campaign in Taiwan. In the run-up to Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996, China launched large-scale military threats against Taiwan, designed to "sweep Lee into the garbage bin of history." However, the threats resulted in Lee winning the election with a strong 54 percent of the votes. If he has learned a lesson from that time, Jiang may not go so far as to repeat the missile threats. Rather, he may use this occasion to launch a media onslaught, criticizing Lee and sowing discord within Taiwan, in the hope of getting the new presidential candidates to keep a distance from the "Lee Teng-hui path." Among the five pairs of candidates, two independent pairs and one from the New Party have already done so. Recently, the KMT candidate also seems to be following suit, when he told a New York Times reporter during a recent interview that he did not see the need to reiterate Lee's "state-to-state" model. Rather, the KMT candidate had been running around threating the electorate that the DPP's victory in the election will lead to war and disaster. His words fall neatly in line with "saying exactly what you don't mean" as China does of Lee, accusing him of being a splittist.
Taiwan is an independent democratic state, whereas China is an independent authoritarian state. After joining the WTO, they will be able to effect economic cooperation as independent economic entities. But they cannot unite into a "confederation." States under the former Soviet Union enjoyed a higher status than a confederation. It was a union of republics, with Ukraine, Belorussia (now Belarus) enjoying membership in the United Nations. However, even these states were mere puppets under the rule of Stalin, Khrushchev, and Brezhnev. For democratic Taiwan to join China as a confederate would be the beginning of a true disaster. The only way to avoid war and disaster is to maintain Taiwan's freedom and democracy, and to unite with other free, democratic nations in promoting the end of communist authoritarianism and the establishment of democracy in China.
Ruan Ming is a visiting professor at Tamkang University and a former special assistant to Chinese Communist Party Secretary-General Hu Yaobang (
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