Sun, Oct 24, 2004 page8

• The failure of China-bashing in US elections

  • By Fan Gang
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  With China's rapid growth increasingly affecting a wide range of issues worldwide, it has become expedient for US presidential candidates to blame China for some domestic problems in the US. But in this year's US presidential election campaign, China-bashing has been virtually non-existent. There are good reasons for this welcome change.

  China has found itself a frequent target of populist demagoguery. Its exchange-rate regime, which pegs the yuan to the US dollar, has been blamed for the mounting US trade deficit. Never mind that America's bilateral trade deficit with China, even including Hong Kong, accounts for less than one-fifth of the total US deficit. Growing imports from China and more direct investment by US companies have supposedly fueled US unemployment. The jobs issue has been further exploited by citing poor working conditions, low wages, child labor and other problems commonly found in developing countries.

  Attacking a communist country has always seemed to offer US politicians a convenient way to appeal to the average voter. After all, most US voters can be trusted not to understand how other countries -- let alone countries in the Far East -- really work.

  But this time, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry both know that it would be unwise to bash China too hard. US companies and the entire US economy have a huge stake in China now, so both candidates have no interest in rocking the boat. A candidate may promise more anti-dumping actions against Chinese goods, vow to press harder on China to change its exchange rate regime, or sharpen criticism of China's weak enforcement of intellectual property rights; but too much protectionism may make a candidate look irresponsible this year.

  Indeed, protectionism can do nothing to reduce the US trade deficit and stanch domestic unemployment. No matter how much politicians blame other countries, growing US imports mean greater reliance on international markets, and some China factor in America's investment portfolio is needed to compete against European and Japanese firms.

  There is no hiding these facts from US voters now. Bush failed to honor his anti-Chinese protectionist campaign promises of 2000, as did former US President Bill Clinton throughout his term. Any China-bashing and protectionist pleas this time around will most likely ring just as hollow.

  Moreover, China's geopolitical importance to the US has grown immensely since the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001. At least for now, engaging China in the global fight against terrorism is in America's interest. China does have some common interests in fighting Islamic extremist terrorism, and it did not try to block America's path to the Iraqi war in the UN Security Council. China has also been cooperating constructively with the US and its allies in dealing with North Korea's nuclear capabilities.

  Of course, the US still wants to contain China and prevent it from becoming a major regional and world power. But that remains a long-term strategic goal, not the stuff of presidential campaigns, especially when China seems too weak to pose any immediate threat to the US on any front in the foreseeable future.

  China has never been a positive factor in US politics, so from its perspective, the less it is mentioned in this US election season, the better. The relative silence about China in the US these days may be due merely to the Iraq war and post-war situation still dominating the news. Yet it may also indicate that US political elites are in the process of facing up to new realities and adjusting their view of China accordingly.

  Fan Gang is professor of economics at Beijing University and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

  Copyright: Project Syndicate
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