From public transport to cycling, sustainable transport is on course to overtake driving in the world’s biggest cities within a decade, a study released yesterday said.
Private car trips would drop by 10 percent on average by 2030 to make up less than half of all city journeys, while public transport, walking and bicycle would all increase in popularity, the Mobility Futures study found.
“It’s a job for every mayor, for every city government to do something,” said Rolf Kullen, mobility director at research consultancy firm Kantar, which produced the study, based on surveys in 31 cities.
“Cities are beginning to understand that you do not build your city around a certain means of transport .. You should build your city around the people,” he said.
More than half the world’s population lives in cities and that is expected to rise to almost 70 percent by 2050, creating increasing pressure for space.
Many urban authorities battling gridlocked centers and air pollution are looking to discourage private car journeys, while a boom in bike-sharing schemes and electric-powered small vehicles are giving residents new ways to get around.
Private car journeys currently represent just more than half of all trips made in major cities, but would sink to 46 percent by 2030, said the researchers who surveyed more than 200,000 residents in cities from New York to Nairobi.
Trips made on public transport, bicycle or on foot would all rise to reach a combined 49 percent of city journeys over the same period, creating a global “tipping point” toward sustainable travel, the study found.
Much of the change is being driven by a rise in rental transport schemes and moves by authorities to share the streets, the researchers said, while a generational shift has seen younger people embrace new ways to get around.
About 40 percent of people globally said they were open to new forms of travel, but cities must act to invest in technology, such as digital payments and sharing schemes, to enable the shift toward greener transport, they said.
Growing awareness of pollution and congestion caused by car use was helping to drive change, but said cities should go further, Yoann Le Petit from environmental campaign group Transport And Environment said.
“We are witnessing this trend, but we should not just relax and lay back,” he said.
“We should really make sure that the alternatives to a private car are zero-emission, are shared and are attractive at the same time,” he added.
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