The consumer confidence index this month gained 1.02 points to 85.3, led by improving sentiment about stock investments, although the survey has yet to reflect effects of the coronavirus outbreak, a National Central University poll said yesterday.
The survey, conducted from Monday to Thursday last week, found that all six subindices pointed upward, with the gauge on stock investment adding 2.5 points to 68.1.
The university attributed the pickup to the signing of a “phase 1” trade deal between the US and China, and positive guidance from major tech firms about their business outlook.
“The subindex should take a downturn going forward as the global markets assimilate the impact of the virus,” said Dachrahn Wu (吳大任), director of the university’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, which conducts the survey.
Wu voiced concerns over the virus possibly affecting the local job market as the SARS outbreak did in 2003, saying that SARS played havoc on service-oriented sectors for three to six months.
The new virus would pose the biggest challenge when Chinese companies return from the Lunar New Year holiday in the middle of next month, substantially increasing travel and the risk of infection, Wu said.
Companies involved in tourism, retail sales and financial services would be the first to feel the pinch that is bound to sweep export-oriented sectors, Wu said.
China accounts for 40 percent of Taiwanese exports and the coronavirus outbreak could dampen demand for electronic components after disrupting production and shipping, Wu said.
The survey’s employment reading stood at 86.7, up 1.25 points from a month earlier, while people expressed greater optimism about the nation’s GDP growth, with the confidence measure gaining 0.75 points to 93.85.
The domestic economy might not shake free from the impact of the virus until the third quarter, Wu said, adding that although some companies partially shifted manufacturing to Taiwan, most kept the bulk of their operations in China.
The subindex on household income added 0.7 points to 97.5, while the subindex on durable goods consumption rose 0.6 points to 112.25.
The survey, which polled 2,766 adults by telephone, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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