Taiwanese expect the nation’s economy to grow at an average pace of 2.3 percent next year, while incomes are expected to remain at current levels amid benign inflation, a survey by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) showed yesterday.
The survey, which polled 12,857 people via its Web site from Dec. 1 to 7, showed that 28.7 percent of respondents expressed confidence that the economy would gain momentum in the next six months, while 33.5 percent said it would lose steam.
The results represented a slight retreat from last month amid uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute, Cathay Financial said.
The world’s two largest economies last week agreed on a “phase one” deal, which is expected to be signed next month.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents said that GDP growth next year might be between 2 and 2.8 percent, it showed.
Taiwanese firms have been benefiting from demand linked to supply chain realignment and deployment of 5G wireless communication devices by Chinese technology titans, Cathay Financial said, adding that the benefits are expected to extend into next year.
Sixty-one percent of respondents voiced little concern about inflationary pressures on expectations that consumer prices might grow less than 1 percent in the next six months, the survey said.
Private and government research institutes agree that an ongoing global slowdown would limit room for price hikes in oil and raw material prices, it said.
Taiwan imports more than 90 percent of its oil.
The survey showed that 60.9 percent of respondents expect their wages to stagnate in the next six months, while 21.7 percent expect a raise and 17 percent anticipate a decline.
For year-end bonuses, 55.6 percent expect one to three months worth of salary and 37.1 percent said the amount could be less than one month’s salary.
It is common for Taiwanese employers to distribute year-end bonuses in line with corporate profitability.
Year-end bonuses, which are typically handed out ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, averaged NT$70,164 (US$2,323) per employee this year, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said.
As for risk appetite, 54 percent intend to stay put, 22.5 percent aim to increase stock holdings and 23.3 percent plan to trim positions, the survey said.
It said that 34.8 percent of respondents believe the TAIEX would have corrections going forward, while 27 percent expect it to rally.
The benchmark index fell in the past two sessions after rising above 12,000 points on the back of an influx of hot money.
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