The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised downward its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth next year to 3.59 percent from the forecast of 4.29 percent it made in July.
The Taipei-based think tank also cut its GDP growth forecast for the nation this year from the 2.36 percent it forecast in July to 1.52 percent, the fifth straight time it had revised downward the forecast since July last year.
“Under the current conditions, the nation’s economy should have bottomed out in the third quarter, with the momentum likely to rebound in the fourth quarter,” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) said at a press conference.
The institute’s quarterly report showed GDP may rise 1.42 percent in the third quarter, followed by a 4.26 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
As for next year, the think tank expected the economy to be more balanced, with the contribution from domestic demand strengthening compared with that from external demand.
Taipei-based Standard Chartered Bank economist Tony Phoo (符銘財), who also attended the press conference, said the retail industry may be the major driver boosting domestic demand-related sectors next year.
Phoo added that domestic demand driven by the retail industry would likely contribute significantly to the nation’s economy next year.
Retail industry sales usually account for less than 40 percent of the nation’s exports, but have been climbing to more than 40 percent over the past two years, reflecting the strong performance of the industry, Phoo said.
Phoo added that the continuously strong performance of the tourism sector could in turn help boost sales in the retail industry.
The institute’s forecast for next year was generally in line with Phoo’s views.
In the next year, the retail industry is expected to post about NT$4 trillion (US$136.57 billion) in sales, with exports set to stand at about US$320 billion, its data showed.
The think tank forecast private consumption would rise 2.76 percent next year, up from the 2.12 percent growth recorded this year, the report said.
Private investment is expected to climb 6 percent next year, compared with a 2.11 percent contraction this year, the report said.
As for the external sector, the institute estimated exports would grow 6.44 percent next year, from the 1.09 percent drop this year, it said.
On the inflation front, the research institute expected the nation’s consumer price index (CPI) to show 1.97 percent growth this year and further exhibit a 1.59 percent expansion next year, both lower than the 2 percent critical mark.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics will update its latest forecast on the nation’s economy and headline inflation on Oct. 31.
In August, the agency estimated GDP would grow 1.66 percent this year, with the headline inflation index expected to rise by 1.93 percent.
SECOND-RATE: Models distilled from US products do not perform the same as the original and undo measures that ensure the systems are neutral, the US’ cable said The US Department of State has ordered a global push to bring attention to what it said are widespread efforts by Chinese companies, including artificial intelligence (AI) start-up DeepSeek (深度求索), to steal intellectual property from US AI labs, according to a diplomatic cable. The cable, dated Friday and sent to diplomatic and consular posts around the world, instructs diplomatic staff to speak to their foreign counterparts about “concerns over adversaries’ extraction and distillation of US AI models.” Distillation is the process of training smaller AI models using output from larger, more expensive ones to lower the costs of training a powerful new
Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery giant Grab Holdings’ planned acquisition of Foodpanda’s Taiwan operations has yet to enter the formal review stage, as regulators await supplementary documents, the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) said yesterday. Acting FTC Chairman Chen Chih-min (陳志民) told the legislature’s Economics Committee that although Grab submitted its application on March 27, the case has not been officially accepted because required materials remain incomplete. Once the filing is finalized, the FTC would launch a formal probe into the deal, focusing on issues such as cross-shareholding and potential restrictions on market competition, Chen told lawmakers. Grab last month announced that it would acquire
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has triggered a seismic reshuffling of global equity markets, with Taiwan and South Korea muscling past European nations one by one. With its stock market now valued at nearly US$4.3 trillion, Taiwan surpassed the UK, Europe’s biggest market, earlier this month, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. South Korea is about US$140 billion away from doing the same. The tech-heavy Asian markets have shot past Germany and France in the past seven months. The shift is largely down to massive gains in shares of three companies that provide essential hardware for AI: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電),
Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) have repeatedly hit new highs, but an equity analyst said the stock’s valuation remains within a reasonable range and any pullback would likely be technical. The contract chipmaker’s historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has ranged between 20 and 30, Cathay Futures Consultant Co (國泰證期) analyst Tsai Ming-han (蔡明翰) told Central News Agency. With market consensus projecting that TSMC would post earnings per share of about NT$100 (US$3.17) this year, supported by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, and the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of below 25, Tsai said the valuation
RSS