The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised downward its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth next year to 3.59 percent from the forecast of 4.29 percent it made in July.
The Taipei-based think tank also cut its GDP growth forecast for the nation this year from the 2.36 percent it forecast in July to 1.52 percent, the fifth straight time it had revised downward the forecast since July last year.
“Under the current conditions, the nation’s economy should have bottomed out in the third quarter, with the momentum likely to rebound in the fourth quarter,” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) said at a press conference.
The institute’s quarterly report showed GDP may rise 1.42 percent in the third quarter, followed by a 4.26 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
As for next year, the think tank expected the economy to be more balanced, with the contribution from domestic demand strengthening compared with that from external demand.
Taipei-based Standard Chartered Bank economist Tony Phoo (符銘財), who also attended the press conference, said the retail industry may be the major driver boosting domestic demand-related sectors next year.
Phoo added that domestic demand driven by the retail industry would likely contribute significantly to the nation’s economy next year.
Retail industry sales usually account for less than 40 percent of the nation’s exports, but have been climbing to more than 40 percent over the past two years, reflecting the strong performance of the industry, Phoo said.
Phoo added that the continuously strong performance of the tourism sector could in turn help boost sales in the retail industry.
The institute’s forecast for next year was generally in line with Phoo’s views.
In the next year, the retail industry is expected to post about NT$4 trillion (US$136.57 billion) in sales, with exports set to stand at about US$320 billion, its data showed.
The think tank forecast private consumption would rise 2.76 percent next year, up from the 2.12 percent growth recorded this year, the report said.
Private investment is expected to climb 6 percent next year, compared with a 2.11 percent contraction this year, the report said.
As for the external sector, the institute estimated exports would grow 6.44 percent next year, from the 1.09 percent drop this year, it said.
On the inflation front, the research institute expected the nation’s consumer price index (CPI) to show 1.97 percent growth this year and further exhibit a 1.59 percent expansion next year, both lower than the 2 percent critical mark.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics will update its latest forecast on the nation’s economy and headline inflation on Oct. 31.
In August, the agency estimated GDP would grow 1.66 percent this year, with the headline inflation index expected to rise by 1.93 percent.
HORMUZ ISSUE: The US president said he expected crude prices to drop at the end of the war, which he called a ‘minor excursion’ that could continue ‘for a little while’ The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait started reducing oil production, as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) is “managing offshore production levels to address storage requirements,” the company said in a statement, without giving details. Kuwait Petroleum Corp said it was lowering production at its oil fields and refineries after “Iranian threats against safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.” The war in the Middle East has all but closed Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the open seas,
RATIONING: The proposal would give the Trump administration ample leverage to negotiate investments in the US as it decides how many chips to give each country US officials are debating a new regulatory framework for exporting artificial intelligence (AI) chips and are considering requiring foreign nations to invest in US AI data centers or security guarantees as a condition for granting exports of 200,000 chips or more, according to a document seen by Reuters. The rules are not yet final and could change. They would be the first attempt to regulate the flow of AI chips to US allies and partners since US President Donald Trump’s administration said it rescinded its predecessor’s so-called AI diffusion rules. Those rules sought to keep a significant amount of AI
Apple Inc increased iPhone production in India by about 53 percent last year and now makes a quarter of its marquee devices there, reflecting the US company’s efforts to avoid tariffs on China. The company assembled about 55 million iPhones in India last year, up from 36 million a year earlier, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named because the numbers aren’t public. Apple makes about 220 million to 230 million iPhones a year globally, with India’s share of the total increasing rapidly. Apple has accelerated its expansion in the world’s most populous country in recent years, bolstered
A new worry has been rippling across the stock market lately: Entire businesses, not just their employees, might be thrown out of work. While most economists say fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) job apocalypse are overblown, seismic shifts have happened in the past after big tech breakthroughs. The IT revolution of the 1990s led to a surge in productivity that sped up the US economy for several years. It also rendered companies or even industries largely redundant — from travel agents and stockbrokers to classified advertising and newspapers, or video rental stores. Economists expect AI would deliver higher productivity,
RSS