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Topology increases forecast for year’s laptop shipments

Global laptop computer shipments could increase to 128 million units this year as more PC makers, such as Dell Inc, unveil low-cost notebooks to cater to new customer demand, a report by a Taipei-based market researcher said yesterday.

Topology Research Institute (拓墣產業研究所) raised its forecast for global notebook shipments by nearly 7 percent from its previous estimate of 120 million as major PC makers followed Asustek Computer Inc’s (華碩電腦) example and launched low-cost models, Topology analyst Jane Tseng (曾筱軫) said.

The revised figures would mean a 37 percent expansion in notebook shipments from 93 million units shipped last year.

Reflecting strong demand, local contract notebook makers, led by Quanta Computer Inc (廣達), also raised their shipment forecast for this year by 8 percent to 10 percent, the report said.

“Shipments of low-cost laptops will exceed my previous expectations,” Tseng said.

In the first half alone, Asustek sold 2 million Eee PCs, she said.

Tseng raised her forecast for low-cost laptop shipments to about 10 million units this year, up from a February estimate of 3 million to 5 million units.

“With major PC makers like Hewlett Packard Co and Acer Inc deciding to launch low-cost laptops, sales of the notebooks will increase, greatly helped by the companies’ intensive global sales network,” Tseng said.

She warned, however, that the uptake of low-cost notebooks with 8.9-inch and 10-inch screens could eat into standard laptop sales as consumers might turn to low-cost laptops amid rising inflation.

In her outlook for the third quarter, Tseng said that notebook shipments could grow at a slower pace, similar to what the industry experienced last year, because of a delay in sales of Intel Corp’s new “Montevina” chip, which is the second-generation version of its mobile Centrino platform.

Overall, “We do not see a serious negative impact on PC demand because of the macro economy. We only see some slump in corporate demand in the US market, but consumer demand looks quite normal,” Tseng said, dismissing fears that inflation and a weak economy could hurt sales.

Tseng also said a supply constraint in battery cells could show improvement in the third quarter.

Supply of liquid-crystal-display panels and plastic casing, however, could be tight next quarter because of growing demand, Tseng said.
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