Taiwanese liquid-crystal-display (LCD) makers may face severe difficulties in the year ahead, after the booms-and-busts of last year, due to overcapacity and uncertainty over demand for computer monitors and flat-screen televisions, analysts said.
Overall, global flat panel makers thrived last year, with earnings skyrocketing to record highs thanks to strong demand for computers. Taiwanese companies alone are expected to reap big profits, with an estimated NT$62.33 billion in earnings.
But, things turned sour in the final quarter of 2004, as demand lagged far behind supply, further hurting panel prices. Analysts estimate the persistent overcapacity has cut LCD display prices by over 35 percent, approaching the cost of most display makers in the fourth quarter.
With the price erosion, several flat-panel manufacturers issued profit warnings last year. Overall, the nation's four primary thin-film-transistor (TFT) LCD suppliers, led by AU Optronics Corp (
But the nightmares may not end there, according to an analyst at SinoPac Securities Corp (
"The huge increase in new capacity could weigh on the ongoing oversupply," Ken Yu (
The expansion plans of Taiwanese flat-panel makers support Yu's warning.
AU Optronics, Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp (
Planned capacity increases are not limited to local companies. South Korean giant Samsung Electronics Co's advanced seventh-generation fab, or factory, will start operation in the first quarter, according to Yu.
Chinese TFT-LCD display latecomers SVA Co (上海廣電) and Beijing Orient Electronics Technology Group (京東方) are also gearing up to join the ranks of their global competitors early this year, with the help of their overseas partners, Yu said.
Capacity expansion is expected to further tilt the supply imbalance to 4.5 percent above demand this year, from 3 percent last year, KGI Securities (
In the face of rising supply and falling demand, Yu forecasts across-the-board losses for local flat-panel makers this year, with a loss of NT$5.4 billion for AU Optronics and NT$4.2 billion for Chi Mei. Smaller players Chunghwa Picture Tubes Ltd (
But, Eric Lin (林宜正), an analyst with Yuanta Core Pacific Securities (元大京華證券), appeared more optimistic, citing recent recovery in demand for LCD TVs.
Lin said the budding revival isn't likely to help panel makers get out of the woods soon, but it may speed inventory digestion.
While oversupply will continue to plague TFT-LCD panel suppliers in the first half of the year, the industry is expected to experience positive signs in the second half, Lin said.
According to sales information from retailers in the North American and Taiwan markets, where a significant 30-percent decline in prices for slim-screen TVs last quarter spurred demand, we expect to see better-than-expected demand for TVs in the second half of the year Lin said.
"That will strengthen my assumption that local flat-panel makers may start to book profits in the third quarter," Lin said.
Market searcher DisplaySearch's latest report coincided with Lin's view. Global LCD TV shipments exceeded expectations in the third quarter of last year, rising 36 percent quarter-on-quarter to 2.2 million.
The shrinking price gap between the sleek LCD TVs and boxy cathode-ray-tube sets also helps to accelerate replacement of traditional TV sets, Lin said.
Global demand for slim-screen TVs is expected to more than double to over 19 million sets this year, compared to less than 8 million last year, according to Lin.
Built on that optimism, Lin expects AU Optronics and Chi Mei to post profits of NT$5.6 billion and NT$4.3 billion, respectively, this year.
HannStar, however, could see losses widen to NT$8 billion, he forecasts.
Huge losses from an industrial downturn usually prompt speculation over consolidation -- seen as the last option for weak players. But analysts said the possibility of mergers among Taiwan's TFT-LCD players is slim.
"Building a cost-effective next-generation plant will be a better option for industry leaders than spending cash to acquire less advanced factories," Lin said.
Instead of consolidation, local manufacturers of TFT-LCD panel for monitors and TVs chose to diversify into small-sized screens for handsets and portable DVD players to weather the downturn.
"But, the effect will be very limited as small-sized panels consume merely a small part of their capacities," said Annabelle Hsu (徐美雯), an analyst with researcher Market Intelligence Center (市場情報中心) in Taipei.
Hsu said that strong growth from LCD TVs is still the last hope for LCD panel suppliers to balance the quickly expanding capacity.
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