If Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban emerges victorious from this month’s general election, it would have consequences far beyond the central European country, analysts said.
Since his return to office in 2010, Orban has repeatedly tussled with the EU, with Polish and Irish leaders on Tuesday condemning his government’s close links with Moscow as “sinister” and “repulsive” after the latest revelations of leaked phone calls between Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said that “European ministers should work for Europe, not for Russia.”
Photo: Reuters
Orban has regularly paralyzed EU foreign policymaking by wielding Hungary’s veto.
He has repeatedly held up EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and blocked aid to the war-torn country, even trading barbs with Kyiv during the election campaign.
If Orban were to score a fifth consecutive term on April 12, analysts believe he would dig in further.
However, with the campaign entering its final stretch, independent polls show challenger Peter Magyar well ahead.
If Magyar and his TISZA party win, he is expected to improve relations with the EU and unlock billions of euros for Hungary that Brussels has frozen over rule-of-law and other concerns.
Another Orban win “would mean the continuation of the current course, where Hungary acts as a spoiler, blocking common European action and limiting the EU’s ability to speak with one voice,” said Zsuzsanna Vegh of the German Marshall Fund, a US think tank.
Vegh said that the 62-year-old would feel “increasingly emboldened” because he “enjoys [US President Donald] Trump’s backing.”
However, Zoltan Kiszelly, from the Budapest-based Szazadveg think tank, foresees an eventual compromise with the EU.
“Brussels wants Hungarian votes for unanimous decisions, while the government wants EU funds to get the economy back on track,” Kiszelly told reporters.
Hungary could negotiate a formal “opt out” from some EU decisions as a possible solution, he said.
Neither analyst expected “unconditional” pro-EU policies or changes on migration policy if Magyar wins, nor that he would be strongly pro-Ukraine.
Kiszelly said that under Magyar, “the Hungarian veto would cease to exist within the EU” and he would not oppose Brussels as “dramatically” as Orban.
“The country would not present such a sharp alternative, but it would still attempt to restrain the Brussels mainstream, as [Italian Prime Minister Georgia] Meloni and [Slovakian Prime Minister Robert] Fico are doing,” he added.
Orban’s defeat could have consequences for an ideological battle far beyond Hungary.
“Trump would lose his biggest advocate within the EU and nobody would be at the table to offer the same kind of alternative, for a while at least,” Kiszelly said.
Orban is a “symbolic figure in the global sovereigntist-nationalist, far right movement,” said Andras Biro-Nagy, the head of the Budapest-based Policy Solutions think tank.
If he were to lose the vote, it could “affect this entire network”, Biro-Nagy told reporters.
“Many leaders consider Orban a source of inspiration and his 16-year hold on power is what ultimately lends him his credibility,” he added.
Most analysts believe an Orban victory would see Hungary continue down an anti-democratic path.
“He clearly gave up on implementing reforms to secure the EU funds and, with that, is moving to openly disregard EU law and even EU court decisions,” Vegh said.
“If Orban wins, we can expect further radicalization and escalation of aggressive actions against political opponents,” Biro-Nagy said.
He pointed to a speech Orban made in February, in which he vowed to continue his crackdown against “fake civil society organizations, bought journalists, judges [and] politicians.”
Magyar has pledged to carry out the reforms required of Hungary to access frozen EU funds, but whether he can bring lasting change depends on the scope of his victory, Biro-Nagy said.
“If TISZA obtains a two-thirds supermajority, then it could attempt to dismantle Orban’s system,” he said.
However, a narrow win would mean just a “change in government rather than the change of system” promised by Magyar, he added.
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