Thu, Apr 23, 2026 page2

• Lai’s canceled Eswatini trip: Revoked overflight permissions a test of waters, experts say

  A SHOW OF STRENGTH: Beijing is demonstrating its ability to leverage ties and debt to pressure countries into restricting the nation’s global space, an expert said

  • By Huang Ching-hsuan and Jake Chung / Staff reporter, with staff writer
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  Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar suddenly rescinding overflight permissions for President William Lai’s (賴清德) flight is Beijing testing how far it could pressure Taiwan without triggering open conflict, National Cheng Kung University professor Li Jung-shian (李忠憲) said yesterday.

  The three nations’ decisions were driven by economic pressure from China, Li said.

  Beijing is attempting to probe the limits of coercion short of war, making the issue more than a simple diplomatic incident, but part of a broader effort to reshape the meaning of “freedom,” he said.

  

  National Cheng Kung University professor Lee Jung-shian is pictured at an event in a bookstore in Tainan on July 25 last year.

  Photo: Hung Jui-chin, Taipei Times

  While freedom is often described as the absence of direct obstruction, real constraints frequently emerge through seemingly legitimate procedures, Li said.

  In this case, no aircraft were shot down and no routes were formally closed, yet the situation raises questions about whether a “choice” remains genuine when it is heavily conditioned in advance, he said.

  Rather than focusing solely on why a planned flight to Eswatini was canceled, Taiwan should consider how to identify and overcome such “invisible borders,” Li said, adding that political responses, including electoral choices, could be one form of resistance.

  Soochow University associate professor Chen Fang-yu (陳方隅) said Beijing is demonstrating its ability to leverage economic ties and debt to pressure other countries into restricting Taiwan’s international maneuvering room, as demonstrated by former president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) successful visit to Eswatini at the end of her term, while Lai was forced to cancel.

  It is worth watching whether Beijing would attempt to coerce countries in Europe and the Americas, Chen said, adding that although many countries in those regions have reduced reliance on China, Beijing still retains significant influence.

  The volatility of Washington under the administration of US President Donald Trump is making it more difficult to schedule presidential visits abroad, he said.

  Taiwan could send senior diplomatic officials, such as the minister of foreign affairs, instead of the president, Chen said.

  National Chengchi University professor Yen Chen-shen (嚴震生) said Lai’s flight route was particularly problematic and suggested that future visits to Eswatini could transit through the US to avoid similar disruptions.

  Such scenarios would be harder to replicate outside Africa, which China views as part of its sphere of influence, he added.

  Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, a Japanese political scientist and an honorary chair professor at National Tsing Hua University, said Beijing’s “carrot and stick” approach is unlikely to win goodwill among Taiwanese and could instead erode trust.
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