Mon, Feb 02, 2026 page3

• Academic blasts ‘Fourth Communique’

  A NATION, NOT A PAWN A US professor’s proposed ‘Fourth Communique’ ruffles feathers as it adopts Beijing’s narrative and disregards Taiwan’s own agency

  • By Yang Mien-chieh and Fion Khan / Staff reporter, with staff writer
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  A so-called “fourth US-China communique” proposed by a US political theorist would be a risk rather than a solution, as it would ignore Taiwan’s role in resisting authoritarian expansion, adopting Beijing’s narrative while failing to align with the strategic direction of the Trump administration, a Taiwanese academic said.

  Speaking at the World Economic Forum, Harvard University professor of government Graham Allison, said the US and China recognize that Taiwan is a flashpoint and that a crisis would have major consequences for both sides.

  Both countries might view President William Lai (賴清德) and any efforts he makes to push Taiwan toward independence as threats to stability, Allison said.

  

  The flags of the USA and China flutter in Beijing, China, Nov. 15, 2023.

  Photo: EPA

  He said there could be a fourth communique between Washington and Beijing, with a more binding consensus on Taiwan to reduce the risk of war.

  Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor at National Cheng Kung University’s Department of Political Science and executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, commented on the proposal, saying the idea was an outdated strategy that misjudges geopolitical realities.

  Allison’s analysis prioritizes stability in great-power relations, viewing Taiwan as a variable that could be managed and suppressed, failing to recognize Taiwan’s significance to the entire Western world, Wang said.

  Taiwan is not merely a geopolitical chess piece, but a key indicator in the global contest between democracy and authoritarian expansion, he said.

  If the US were to make concessions on Taiwan to trade for stability, the message sent to the world would not only represent a betrayal of Taiwan, but shake up the entire liberal international order, he said.

  Washington’s core national security and defense strategies focus on constraining China and preventing it from unilaterally changing the “status quo,” but not restraining Taiwan, Wang said.

  US President Donald Trump has gradually decoupled the Taiwan issue from the broader US-China relationship, rejecting the traditional framework of sacrificing Taiwan for the sake of US-China stability, he said.

  The idea of jointly managing Taiwan through a fourth communique runs counter to this approach and is baseless in terms of political reality, Wang said.

  Allison’s argument assumed that Taiwan is “gradually moving toward independence,” giving Washington and Beijing a shared interest in restraining Taiwan to avoid conflict, he said.

  This premise is wrong, as China’s strategic goal has never been limited to Taiwan, but to expel US influence from the Western Pacific, reshape its sphere of influence and eventually surpass the US in the international system, Wang said.

  This objective would not change regardless of whether Taiwan is kept under control, he added.

  Allison advocated a “grand bargain” between the US and the former Soviet Union to stabilize bilateral relations during the Cold War and is applying the same logic to the trilateral relations between US, China and Taiwan, ignoring the change in the Indo-Pacific strategic environment, Wang said.

  Even if Taiwan were to remain silent, Beijing would not abandon its broader strategic ambitions, he said.

  Portraying Taiwan as a “troublemaker” is rhetoric used by China to justify its expansion, Wang said.
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