Beijing could eventually see a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" way to bring about unification, the US Department of Defense said in a newly released annual report to Congress.
The Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," was in many ways similar to last year’s report but reorganized the analysis of the options China has to take over Taiwan.
Generally, according to the report, Chinese leaders view the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities for a Taiwan campaign as improving, but they remain uncertain about its readiness to successfully seize Taiwan while countering potential US involvement.
Photo: Reuters
The report said Beijing is busy refining several military options to force unification with Taiwan, ranging from coercive actions short of war to a full-scale joint island landing campaign (JILC).
A landing campaign involving a large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the most decisive and riskiest option, the report said.
It would require highly complex, coordinated operations to "break through Taiwan's shore defenses and establish a beachhead that allowed the PLA to build up enough combat power to seize key targets or territory to force unification," the report said.
Yet despite the risks and Beijing's preference for less dramatic options, "it is preparing for a JILC and could determine that it is the only prudent option for compelling unification," the report said.
"We lack information about whether Beijing has determined the viability of other unification options, and the decisiveness of a JILC will probably make it an increasingly more appealing option as the decision space for other options is constrained," the report said.
The three less dramatic options, also covered in last year’s report, were coercion short of war, a joint firepower strike campaign and a joint blockade campaign.
Over the past year, the report said, the PLA has conducted operations exercising key elements of these options, including drills focused on blockading key ports, striking sea and land targets, and countering possible US military intervention.
Coercion consists of combining escalating military pressure with economic, informational and diplomatic tools to compel Taipei’s capitulation and could include cyberattacks, electronic warfare or conventional strikes against Taiwan’s political, military and communications infrastructure.
The goal would be to instill fear and degrade public confidence, with the aim of forcing negotiations on Beijing’s terms without launching a full invasion, the report said.
The success of that option would depend heavily on Taiwan’s resilience and will to resist Chinese coercion, as well as external support from the US and others.
A joint firepower strike campaign would involve missile and air strikes against key government and military targets "to degrade Taiwan's defenses, decapitate its military and political leadership or undermine the public's resolve to resist."
Such operations would require complex coordination across PLA services, potentially limiting their effectiveness, according to the report.
A joint blockade campaign would employ maritime and air blockades to cut off Taiwan's vital imports over weeks or months while conducting missile strikes and possible seizure of Taiwan's offshore islands "to compel Taiwan to negotiate or surrender."
However, the report did not offer any assessment of the factors that would determine the potential success or failure of a blockade strategy.
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