China is rehearsing for a potential invasion of Taiwan using a shadow navy of civilian cargo ships and ferries, according to a Reuters investigation that tracked vessel movements and analyzed satellite imagery of military exercises conducted this summer.
The investigation reveals that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is experimenting with techniques that could accelerate the landing of troops and equipment onto multiple Taiwanese beaches simultaneously — a strategy that military experts say aims to overwhelm the nation’s defenders.
Twelve civilian vessels were identified — six roll-on, roll-off car ferries and six deck cargo ships — as they traveled in mid-August to a beach near Jiesheng in Guangdong Province. Satellite images captured some of the ships practicing beach landing operations on Aug. 23.
Photo: Reuters
Satellite images show deck cargo ships unloading vehicles directly onto beaches using their vehicle ramps.
Reuters is the first to publish images of this strategy during an amphibious landing exercise.
These civilian vessels, about 90m long and widely used in Asian commercial shipping, can deliver cargo to beaches without port facilities due to their shallow draft and open-deck design.
The exercises featured a self-propelled floating pier system that has not been seen since 2023, suggesting that China continues to develop portable infrastructure that could speed the unloading of troops, equipment and supplies if Taiwanese infrastructure is unavailable or destroyed during an invasion, according to naval warfare experts.
The outcome of a Chinese attack could depend heavily on the response of the US, the nation’s most important ally.
For decades, the US refused to say how it would react to an invasion, a policy dubbed “strategic ambiguity.”
Former US president Joe Biden appeared to break with this policy, confirming on a number of occasions during his term that US forces would defend Taiwan if it was attacked.
Asked about US President Donald Trump’s position on Taiwan, a White House spokesman said: “The policy of the US is to maintain Taiwan’s defensive capability relative to that of China. And as the president has said, Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) will not attack Taiwan while President Trump is in office.”
“The Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China, and how to resolve it is entirely a matter for the Chinese people,” the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in response to questions.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not respond to a request for comment.
In response to questions, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense referred Reuters to comments made in September by Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄), who said that Taiwan maintains “continuous oversight” of China’s use of roll-on, roll-off vessels.
“We closely monitor how they support military operations,” Koo said, adding that Taiwan has “developed relevant contingency plans.”
Admiral Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), a former chief of staff of Taiwan’s armed forces, said the satellite imagery shows that China is developing capabilities for “multi-point, small amphibious landing operations” using large numbers of smaller craft.
This approach could prove more difficult for Taiwan to defend against than concentrated landings at fewer sites, he said.
Use of civilian vessels could greatly expand China’s capacity for amphibious landings.
The Chinese military has dedicated military ships capable of transporting about 20,000 troops in an initial attack, according to Taiwanese and US military experts.
That is far short of military experts’ estimates of what would be needed in an invasion. Subduing Taiwan would require 300,000 to 1 million troops or more, they said, making civilian vessels crucial to any invasion plan.
Getting large numbers of armored vehicles ashore quickly in particular is critical.
At one point during the August exercise, Reuters counted at least 330 vehicles that had accumulated on and near the beach.
Reuters spent about a year tracking more than 100 civilian vessels that have participated in past military drills or that are owned by operators frequently involved in military exercises.
The news agency worked with satellite data provider BlackSky Technology to observe the summer drills.
China’s commercial shipbuilding industry accounts for 53 percent of global shipbuilding, compared with just 0.1 percent for the US.
The PLA has legal authority to commandeer civilian shipping for military purposes, giving China enormous amphibious lift capability beyond its already formidable navy — the world’s largest.
“It means that their amphibious lift capability is much, much greater than what it appears to be,” said Ian Easton, an associate professor at the US Naval War College, who reviewed the exercise imagery.
One senior Taiwan defense official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, questioned the viability of using civilian ferries and cargo ships in an invasion.
The official said it would be nearly impossible for China to deploy landing craft like the ones Reuters observed during an invasion, because they would be vulnerable to small, easily-portable weapons such as shoulder-fired missiles.
The official suggested China might be waging “cognitive warfare” by holding large-scale exercises designed to demoralize Taiwan and its allies.
ALIGNED THINKING: Taiwan and Japan have a mutual interest in trade, culture and engineering, and can work together for stability, Cho Jung-tai said Taiwan and Japan are two like-minded countries willing to work together to form a “safety barrier” in the Indo-Pacific region, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) yesterday said at the opening ceremony of the 35th Taiwan-Japan Modern Engineering and Technology Symposium in Taipei. Taiwan and Japan are close geographically and closer emotionally, he added. Citing the overflowing of a barrier lake in the Mataian River (馬太鞍溪) in September, Cho said the submersible water level sensors given by Japan during the disaster helped Taiwan monitor the lake’s water levels more accurately. Japan also provided a lot of vaccines early in the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic,
Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁) on Monday announced light shows and themed traffic lights to welcome fans of South Korean pop group Twice to the port city. The group is to play Kaohsiung on Saturday as part of its “This Is For” world tour. It would be the group’s first performance in Taiwan since its debut 10 years ago. The all-female group consists of five South Koreans, three Japanese and Tainan’s Chou Tzu-yu (周子瑜), the first Taiwan-born and raised member of a South Korean girl group. To promote the group’s arrival, the city has been holding a series of events, including a pop-up
TEMPORAL/SPIRITUAL: Beijing’s claim that the next Buddhist leader must come from China is a heavy-handed political maneuver that will fall flat-faced, experts said China’s requirement that the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation to be born in China and approved by Beijing has drawn criticism, with experts at a forum in Taipei yesterday saying that if Beijing were to put forth its own Dalai Lama, the person would not be recognized by the Tibetan Buddhist community. The experts made a remarks at the two-day forum hosted by the Tibet Religious Foundation of His Holiness the Dalai Lama titled: “The Snow Land Forum: Finding Common Ground on Tibet.” China says it has the right to determine the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, as it claims sovereignty over Tibet since ancient times,
Temperatures in some parts of Taiwan are expected to fall sharply to lows of 15°C later this week as seasonal northeasterly winds strengthen, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. It is to be the strongest cold wave to affect northern Taiwan this autumn, while Chiayi County in the southwest and some parts of central Taiwan are likely to also see lower temperatures due to radiational cooling, which occurs under conditions of clear skies, light winds and dry weather, the CWA said. Across Taiwan, temperatures are to fall gradually this week, dropping to 15°C to 16°C in the early hours of Wednesday
RSS