The Cabinet has proposed special defense budgets totaling NT$117.6 billion (US$3.85 billion) to boost military spending beyond the limits of the general budget, amid expectations that US President Donald Trump’s administration would approve additional arms sales to Taiwan next year, experts said on Thursday.
The special budget would bring spending on defense to NT$949.5 billion, equivalent to 3.32 percent of GDP.
The NT$117.6 billion figure comprises three special budgets, including NT$7.6 billion proposed by the Coast Guard Administration. The remainder is to be earmarked under the Homeland Security Resilience Special Budget and the Foreign Military Sales Special Budget, Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics official Hsu Yung-yi (許永議) said, without providing further details, as the budgets remain under Cabinet review.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense
Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the government-run Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the Ministry of National Defense general budget increase is limited, making the use of special budgets a natural way to meet arms procurement needs.
The special budgets could fund the production of the seven planned indigenous defense submarines, the procurement of drones from the US and local manufacturers, as well as the development of domestically made uncrewed surface vehicles, Su said.
The special budgets are likely to also include funds to purchase E-2D airborne early warning aircraft and M109A7 self-propelled howitzers from the US, he added.
Su expressed hope that the special defense budgets would prioritize domestically produced weapons — in line with the military’s Sea-Air Combat Power Improvement Plan — to stimulate the defense industry and broader economic growth.
National Taiwan University Department of Political Science associate professor Chen Shih-min (陳世民) said the sale of significant platforms such as M1A2T main battle tanks and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, which Taiwan recently received, were approved during Trump’s first term.
Although the Trump administration has not announced new military sales to Taiwan, the government is confident that additional arms packages would be forthcoming and is preparing for them through special defense budgets, Chen said.
With the 2027 “Davidson window” approaching, there is a high probability that the US would sell advanced weapons to Taiwan next year, he said.
The term “Davidson window” comes from then-US Indo-Pacific Command commander Philip Davidson’s 2021 testimony to the US Congress, in which he said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027
Davidson’s assessment has since been reiterated by several US officials, including US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
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