Japanese politicians should work to prevent a conflict between China and the US over Taiwan, former Japanese assistant chief Cabinet secretary Kyoji Yanagisawa told the Asia-Pacific Forward Forum in Taipei on Tuesday.
Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s belief that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency” differed from his own ideas, Yanagisawa told the forum, which was organized by the Cross-Straits Common Market Foundation.
Yanagisawa said he also opposed remarks by former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso, who on a visit to Taiwan in August last year called for Taiwan, Japan, and the US to be “prepared for war” as a means of deterring China.
Photo: CNA
A war between Taiwan and China would spark a US intervention, Yanagisawa said, adding that Washington would likely ask for the use of Japanese military bases and other direct assistance.
If Japan agrees, its facilities, particularly military bases in Okinawa, risk being targeted by Chinese missiles, he said.
However, if Japan refuses, it would mean the dissolution of the US-Japan security alliance, he added.
No matter which scenario played out, it would be a “nightmare” for Japan, which should do its utmost to prevent getting into such a situation, Yanagisawa said.
If Japan becomes involved in a war with China, thousands of lives, as well as a lot of Japanese and US ships and planes, would be lost, he said.
In Japan’s National Security Strategy, which was released on Dec. 16, 2022, there is language calling for Japan to adopt a confrontational stance against totalitarian regimes.
China was identified as an autocratic regime that, like Russia, could disrupt the international order, and there is language calling for Japan to bolster its defense capabilities in a potential conflict with China, including sourcing long-range missiles that could strike China, he said.
Such calls stem from a desire to maintain a free international order, he said, attributing them to concern over Japan’s weak economy.
However, such calls are “ill-conceived,” as totalitarian regimes have little effect on Japan’s economy, he said, adding that there is no need for Japan to confront totalitarian regimes or decouple from China.
Japan has expressed a desire to purchase 400 cruise missiles and longer-range land-based anti-ship missiles from the US, but they would be unlikely to provide a deterrence, as China might have up to 10,000 missiles by the time Japan received them, he said.
Japan often talks about deterrence, which results in arms races, but it should also talk about “reassurance,” namely reassuring the other side that its core interests would not be compromised to prevent war, Yanagisawa said.
What Taiwan, China and the US want is to maintain the “status quo” and avoid war, even though they have different narratives, he said.
The three sides should engage in dialogue even in the absence of rapport, he said.
Most young people in Japan favor improving Japan’s defense capabilities and dislike China, but people born after 1945, including himself, have never experienced war, he said.
Young people in Taiwan and Japan, who still have decades to live, should learn about war, he said, adding that he would continue to do his part in that effort.
Asked if Japan would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a Chinese invasion, Yanagisawa said that mainstream public opinion favors Japan defending Taiwan, but he questioned whether Tokyo would do so.
Faced with the threat of war, the best policy is to not count on other countries’ help, he said.
Taiwan should not base its expectations on the prevailing sentiment among Japanese, he said.
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