China is unlikely to attempt a military invasion of Taiwan in the short term, but would continue pursuing a “salami slicing” strategy with the aim of forcing Taiwan to talk, a research report says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “has a clear intention to unify Taiwan, but the means he would employ to attempt this are vague, and both peaceful unification and the use of military force would remain as possible options,” the report by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research says.
Xi sees China’s unification with Taiwan as being closely linked to his plans for the so-called “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the report says.
Photo: Reuters
“Xi still sees peaceful unification as the best option to achieve that end, but is also preparing for the worst-case scenario,” it says. “At this stage, the probability of China launching a military attack on Taiwan is low, but if the issue is left to Xi alone to decide, the risk of trouble in the Taiwan Strait goes up.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategy for pursuing peaceful unification would involve retaining the option of using force, and using threats and coercion to sow a rift in Taiwanese society, forcing Taiwan to the negotiating table, the report says, adding that China would continue attempts to infiltrate Taiwanese society through the guise of various types of exchanges.
Citing examples, the report says China’s large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait held on Sept. 11 last year demonstrated an attempt at intimidation of Taiwanese, while its “cross-strait development plan” promising benefits for Taiwanese who relocate to Fujian Province is an attempt at infiltration and division of Taiwanese society.
At the same time, China’s military drills were intended as a show of force to the US, which it hopes to deter from military involvement in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the report says.
“Rather than outright launching a war, the CCP is seeking to pressure Taiwan politically, militarily, economically, psychologically and socially,” it says.
However, if decisionmaking power in the CCP is completely concentrated in Xi alone, and CCP bureaucrats lose their advisory functions, the risk of Xi acting rashly in the Taiwan Strait would increase significantly, the report says.
Taiwan’s government and military would need to carefully plan for that contingency, and be prepared for the possibility of an armed conflict with China, it says.
Taiwan would benefit from more integrated military strategies and deployments if the US and its allies treat the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea as a “single theater of operations,” a Taiwanese military expert said yesterday. Shen Ming-shih (沈明室), a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said he made the assessment after two Japanese military experts warned of emerging threats from China based on a drill conducted this month by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command. Japan Institute for National Fundamentals researcher Maki Nakagawa said the drill differed from the
‘WORSE THAN COMMUNISTS’: President William Lai has cracked down on his political enemies and has attempted to exterminate all opposition forces, the chairman said The legislature would motion for a presidential recall after May 20, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said yesterday at a protest themed “against green communists and dictatorship” in Taipei. Taiwan is supposed to be a peaceful homeland where people are united, but President William Lai (賴清德) has been polarizing and tearing apart society since his inauguration, Chu said. Lai must show his commitment to his job, otherwise a referendum could be initiated to recall him, he said. Democracy means the rule of the people, not the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but Lai has failed to fulfill his
A fugitive in a suspected cosmetic surgery fraud case today returned to Taiwan from Canada, after being wanted for six years. Internet celebrity Su Chen-tuan (蘇陳端), known as Lady Nai Nai (貴婦奈奈), and her former boyfriend, plastic surgeon Paul Huang (黃博健), allegedly defrauded clients and friends of about NT$1 billion (US$30.66 million). Su was put on a wanted list in 2019 when she lived in Toronto, Canada, after failing to respond to subpoenas and arrest warrants from the Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office. Su arrived at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport at 5am today on an EVA Air flight accompanied by a
A rally held by opposition parties yesterday demonstrates that Taiwan is a democratic country, President William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday, adding that if opposition parties really want to fight dictatorship, they should fight it on Tiananmen Square in Beijing. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) held a protest with the theme “against green communists and dictatorship,” and was joined by the Taiwan People’s Party. Lai said the opposition parties are against what they called the “green communists,” but do not fight against the “Chinese communists,” adding that if they really want to fight dictatorship, they should go to the right place and face
RSS