China is unlikely to attempt a military invasion of Taiwan in the short term, but would continue pursuing a “salami slicing” strategy with the aim of forcing Taiwan to talk, a research report says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “has a clear intention to unify Taiwan, but the means he would employ to attempt this are vague, and both peaceful unification and the use of military force would remain as possible options,” the report by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research says.
Xi sees China’s unification with Taiwan as being closely linked to his plans for the so-called “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the report says.
Photo: Reuters
“Xi still sees peaceful unification as the best option to achieve that end, but is also preparing for the worst-case scenario,” it says. “At this stage, the probability of China launching a military attack on Taiwan is low, but if the issue is left to Xi alone to decide, the risk of trouble in the Taiwan Strait goes up.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategy for pursuing peaceful unification would involve retaining the option of using force, and using threats and coercion to sow a rift in Taiwanese society, forcing Taiwan to the negotiating table, the report says, adding that China would continue attempts to infiltrate Taiwanese society through the guise of various types of exchanges.
Citing examples, the report says China’s large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait held on Sept. 11 last year demonstrated an attempt at intimidation of Taiwanese, while its “cross-strait development plan” promising benefits for Taiwanese who relocate to Fujian Province is an attempt at infiltration and division of Taiwanese society.
At the same time, China’s military drills were intended as a show of force to the US, which it hopes to deter from military involvement in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the report says.
“Rather than outright launching a war, the CCP is seeking to pressure Taiwan politically, militarily, economically, psychologically and socially,” it says.
However, if decisionmaking power in the CCP is completely concentrated in Xi alone, and CCP bureaucrats lose their advisory functions, the risk of Xi acting rashly in the Taiwan Strait would increase significantly, the report says.
Taiwan’s government and military would need to carefully plan for that contingency, and be prepared for the possibility of an armed conflict with China, it says.
SHIPS, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES: The ministry has announced changes to varied transportation industries taking effect soon, with a number of effects for passengers Beginning next month, the post office is canceling signature upon delivery and written inquiry services for international registered small packets in accordance with the new policy of the Universal Postal Union, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications said yesterday. The new policy does not apply to packets that are to be delivered to China, the ministry said. Senders of international registered small packets would receive a NT$10 rebate on postage if the packets are sent from Jan. 1 to March 31, it added. The ministry said that three other policies are also scheduled to take effect next month. International cruise ship operators
HORROR STORIES: One victim recounted not realizing they had been stabbed and seeing people bleeding, while another recalled breaking down in tears after fleeing A man on Friday died after he tried to fight the knife-wielding suspect who went on a stabbing spree near two of Taipei’s busiest metro stations, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) said. The 57-year-old man, identified by his family name, Yu (余), encountered the suspect at Exit M7 of Taipei Main Station and immediately tried to stop him, but was fatally wounded and later died, Chiang said, calling the incident “heartbreaking.” Yu’s family would receive at least NT$5 million (US$158,584) in compensation through the Taipei Rapid Transit Corp’s (TRTC) insurance coverage, he said after convening an emergency security response meeting yesterday morning. National
PLANNED: The suspect visited the crime scene before the killings, seeking information on how to access the roof, and had extensively researched a 2014 stabbing incident The suspect in a stabbing attack that killed three people and injured 11 in Taipei on Friday had planned the assault and set fires at other locations earlier in the day, law enforcement officials said yesterday. National Police Agency (NPA) Director-General Chang Jung-hsin (張榮興) said the suspect, a 27-year-old man named Chang Wen (張文), began the attacks at 3:40pm, first setting off smoke bombs on a road, damaging cars and motorbikes. Earlier, Chang Wen set fire to a rental room where he was staying on Gongyuan Road in Zhongzheng District (中正), Chang Jung-hsin said. The suspect later threw smoke grenades near two exits
The Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency yesterday launched a gift box to market honey “certified by a Formosan black bear” in appreciation of a beekeeper’s amicable interaction with a honey-thieving bear. Beekeeper Chih Ming-chen (池明鎮) in January inspected his bee farm in Hualien County’s Jhuosi Township (卓溪) and found that more than 20 beehives had been destroyed and many hives were eaten, with bear droppings and paw prints near the destroyed hives, the agency said. Chih returned to the farm to move the remaining beehives away that evening when he encountered a Formosan black bear only 20m away, the agency said. The bear
RSS