China is unlikely to attempt a military invasion of Taiwan in the short term, but would continue pursuing a “salami slicing” strategy with the aim of forcing Taiwan to talk, a research report says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “has a clear intention to unify Taiwan, but the means he would employ to attempt this are vague, and both peaceful unification and the use of military force would remain as possible options,” the report by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research says.
Xi sees China’s unification with Taiwan as being closely linked to his plans for the so-called “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” the report says.
Photo: Reuters
“Xi still sees peaceful unification as the best option to achieve that end, but is also preparing for the worst-case scenario,” it says. “At this stage, the probability of China launching a military attack on Taiwan is low, but if the issue is left to Xi alone to decide, the risk of trouble in the Taiwan Strait goes up.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategy for pursuing peaceful unification would involve retaining the option of using force, and using threats and coercion to sow a rift in Taiwanese society, forcing Taiwan to the negotiating table, the report says, adding that China would continue attempts to infiltrate Taiwanese society through the guise of various types of exchanges.
Citing examples, the report says China’s large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait held on Sept. 11 last year demonstrated an attempt at intimidation of Taiwanese, while its “cross-strait development plan” promising benefits for Taiwanese who relocate to Fujian Province is an attempt at infiltration and division of Taiwanese society.
At the same time, China’s military drills were intended as a show of force to the US, which it hopes to deter from military involvement in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the report says.
“Rather than outright launching a war, the CCP is seeking to pressure Taiwan politically, militarily, economically, psychologically and socially,” it says.
However, if decisionmaking power in the CCP is completely concentrated in Xi alone, and CCP bureaucrats lose their advisory functions, the risk of Xi acting rashly in the Taiwan Strait would increase significantly, the report says.
Taiwan’s government and military would need to carefully plan for that contingency, and be prepared for the possibility of an armed conflict with China, it says.
Travel agencies in Taiwan are working to secure alternative flights for travelers bound for New Zealand for the Lunar New Year holiday, as Air New Zealand workers are set to strike next week. The airline said that it has confirmed that the planned industrial action by its international wide-body cabin crew would go ahead on Thursday and Friday next week. While the Auckland-based carrier pledged to take reasonable measures to mitigate the impact of the workers’ strike, an Air New Zealand flight arriving at Taipei from Auckland on Thursday and another flight departing from Taipei for Auckland on Saturday would have to
The manufacture of the remaining 28 M1A2T Abrams tanks Taiwan purchased from the US has recently been completed, and they are expected to be delivered within the next one to two months, a source said yesterday. The Ministry of National Defense is arranging cargo ships to transport the tanks to Taiwan as soon as possible, said the source, who is familiar with the matter. The estimated arrival time ranges from late this month to early next month, the source said. The 28 Abrams tanks make up the third and final batch of a total of 108 tanks, valued at about NT$40.5 billion
A group from the Taiwanese Designers in Australia association yesterday represented Taiwan at the Midsumma Pride March in Melbourne. The march, held in the St. Kilda suburb, is the city’s largest LGBTQIA+ parade and the flagship event of the annual Midsumma Festival. It attracted more than 45,000 spectators who supported the 400 groups and 10,000 marchers that participated this year, the association said. Taiwanese Designers said they organized a team to march for Taiwan this year, joining politicians, government agencies, professionals and community organizations in showing support for LGBTQIA+ people and diverse communities. As the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex
MOTIVES QUESTIONED The PLA considers Xi’s policies toward Taiwan to be driven by personal considerations rather than military assessment, the Epoch Times reports Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) latest purge of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leadership might have been prompted by the military’s opposition to plans of invading Taiwan, the Epoch Times said. The Chinese military opposes waging war against Taiwan by a large consensus, putting it at odds with Xi’s vision, the Falun Gong-affiliated daily said in a report on Thursday, citing anonymous sources with insight into the PLA’s inner workings. The opposition is not the opinion of a few generals, but a widely shared view among the PLA cadre, the Epoch Times cited them as saying. “Chinese forces know full well that
RSS