The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely slow down by late next month, but disease prevention measures should be eased gradually, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Public Health vice dean Tony Chen (陳秀熙) said yesterday.
In the college’s 13th weekly report on COVID-19, college dean Chan Chang-chuan (詹長權) said that in the past four months, many countries have implemented measures including lockdowns, stay-at-home orders and social distancing, adding that infection and mortality rates in some countries have gone down.
As the global pandemic continues, with more than 3.5 million confirmed infections, people have understood that social distancing works, but it also hurts the economy and social activities, so many countries and cities are trying to assess how to return to a relatively normal lifestyle, he said.
Photo courtesy of National Taiwan University College of Public Health
Chen said that his prediction model, based on the number of daily reported cases, suggests that there would be fewer than 2,500 daily new cases worldwide by the end of next month.
The wave of infection can be considered ended if reported cases worldwide drop below 2,000 per day, but there could be other waves in autumn or winter, he said.
Different countries implement different degrees of social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, Chen said, adding that those that implement tighter social distancing regulations have controlled the outbreak better over the past few weeks.
However, as they seriously harm economic activity, many countries are considering rolling back social distancing measures to revive their economies, he said.
Overseas travel might also resume late next month, but countries might implement stricter quarantine measures, he added.
Taiwan has succeeded in blocking the virus by implementing border controls, as well as quarantine and social distancing measures, in the early stages of the outbreak, but the government should consider how to gradually relax the regulations to revive the economy while maintaining control of its disease prevention measures, Chen said.
He suggested that the government conduct risk evaluations for different environments or events, and relax regulations according to the levels of risk, such as navy vessels and cruise ships having the highest risks of cluster infections, while religious gatherings and long-term care facilities have a moderate level of risk.
The government should also consider limiting the number of overseas visitors based on the outbreak situation in each country, he said.
Chan said Taiwan’s next challenge would be maintaining its good disease prevention performance while gradually resuming trade and business activities.
It should also protect people who work at airports, hotels and in industries with a higher risk of infection, Chan said.
Additional reporting by CNA
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