US President Donald Trump said that China would not take military action against Taiwan while he is president, as the Chinese leaders “know the consequences.”
Trump made the statement during an interview on CBS’ 60 Minutes program that aired on Sunday, a few days after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in South Korea.
“He [Xi] has openly said, and his people have openly said at meetings, ‘we would never do anything while President Trump is president,’ because they know the consequences,” Trump said in the interview.
Photo: Reuters
However, he repeatedly declined to say exactly how Washington would respond in the event that China takes military action against Taiwan.
“I don’t want to give it away — I can’t give away my secrets,” Trump said. “I don’t want to be one of these guys that tells you exactly what’s gonna happen if something happens.”
The subject of Taiwan was not discussed during his meeting with Xi on Thursday last week in South Korea, Trump said.
“People were a little surprised at that,” Trump said in the 60 Minutes interview. “He [Xi] never brought it up, because he understands it, and he understands it very well. Taiwan is a very interesting case. It’s 69 miles [111km] away from China. We’re 9,500 miles away. But that doesn’t matter. He understands what will happen.”
Hung Pu-chao (洪浦釗), deputy director of the Center for Mainland China and Regional Development Research at Tunghai University, told a forum in Taipei that Trump’s remarks were consistent with his political style, adding that his claim that Xi promised not to take military action against Taiwan during his presidency was typical Trump-style political language.
Trump sought to establish a powerful image of him that conveyed “China would not attack Taiwan by force as long as I am here,” Hung said.
The language sets an order where he plays the leading role in the Asia-Pacific situation, not only displaying his authority, but also strengthening the discourse that the US is “a stabilizing force,” he said.
Taking Taiwan by force remains the worst strategy from China’s perspective, as Chinese leaders invariably valued strategic focus, Hung said.
The most effective strategy against Taiwan is “to win without war,” meaning to trade time for space and to amass leverage over Taiwan with more pressure, he said.
China is more likely to use multiple approaches — including politics, economics, legislation and public opinion — to create a sense of “isolation and constraint” in Taiwan, undermining Taiwan’s diplomatic space and social resilience without waging a war, Hung said.
For Taiwan, the most important thing is not what Trump said or Xi promised, but to prevent itself from being used as a bargaining chip in US-China negotiations, he said.
Institute for National Policy Research executive director Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁) said the most economical strategy for China is to take Taiwan via agreements.
Xi did not mention giving up on forcefully annexing Taiwan, particularly when he talked about “Taiwanese independence forces” or external forces, Wang said.
As long as China’s ambition to “unify with” Taiwan does not change, it would be impossible for China to get rid of the idea of using military force against Taiwan and Xi would continue with his policy, he said.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not know whether Trump’s successor would be more supportive of Taiwan and would adjust its attitude depending on the future situation, he said, adding that what is sure is that the CCP would not abandon “unification by force.”
China would probably be more prudent during Trump’s terms simply because the cost would be too big, he added.
Beijing has failed in handling its economy and relations with Washington, and corruption in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and national security issues have compounded its problems, Wang said.
Under such circumstances, Xi would be putting his personal power and status in the CCP at a greater risk were he to arbitrarily attack Taiwan by force, he said.
“He could be overthrown,” Wang added.
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