The next few months will be critical in determining the future of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Following party founder Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) arrest in September last year, Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) effectively became the de facto face of the party and officially became chairman in January.
While Ko frequently criticized the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and insinuated sinister intentions on the part of the DPP’s New Tide faction, his era was largely defined by the TPP slogan “rational, pragmatic, scientific,” albeit defined largely by his definition of what that meant.
Photo: Chen Yi-kuan, Taipei Times
The tone and language used by the TPP changed dramatically following Ko’s arrest, veering into the conspiratorial and at times religious, accusing the administration of President William Lai (賴清德) of “weaponizing” the legal system to “eliminate” Ko as a political rival, with some referring to Ko as a “martyr for democracy” and likening him to Nelson Mandela, a Boddhisatva and even Jesus.
Not all of their complaints are exaggerations. They are correct that the frequent leaks from inside the prosecutor’s office to the press are concerning and disturbing. The motives of the leakers are unknown — a problem not limited to this case.
That Ko has been jailed incommunicado for nearly a year without having been convicted of a crime is also disturbing, though a TPP talking point suggesting his detention is the longest since martial law is not correct; former DPP rising star Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦) has been held for longer, also on charges of alleged corruption.
That prosecutors can get away with such draconian measures, and are backed by the High Court (but not always lower courts), is a systemic problem. To Huang’s credit, he has long advocated for judicial reform, and bringing these practices in line with international democratic norms would be a good starting point.
Suggesting Lai is engaged in “eliminating” his opposition and is a “dictator” is a stretch. The recall results underscored Taiwan’s lack of authoritarianism, and strategically, it would make little sense to remove Ko, who helped Lai win the presidency by splitting the opposition vote.
Since Ko’s arrest, these themes have dominated Huang and the TPP’s messaging in rallies, in their published materials and in the press. Though they have highlighted other issues, this has been what has primarily defined the party in the public eye in the Huang era.
Was this a strategy?
SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION
Because of the short timeline, this almost certainly arose spontaneously. However, for a variety of reasons, it took on a life of its own.
The initial response to Ko’s arrest was emotional, with many supporters in genuine shock and dismay.
Supporters of the “little sprout” movement that arose during the Ko presidential run turned out in large numbers to show their support. There were heartfelt, tearful vigils outside the jail and the prosecutor’s offices.
Though unplanned, this development had several positive tactical advantages.
Fairly quickly, the TPP lost about a third of their support following the arrest, but for many of those that remained, their support was hardened and solidified by this new messaging. As of June, about half of those who left the party have returned, but support remains lower than it was a year prior.
Talk of Ko being the victim and a martyr appealed to this core base.
It played well to one of Huang’s strengths: he revels in being a voice of righteous indignation and outrage. Prior to this, Huang’s tone and statements since joining the TPP were far more measured, but now he was standing in front of adoring crowds with his fist in the air, pumping up the crowd against “injustice” and the “authoritarian” Lai regime.
This helped Huang solidify his control over the party, and he won the party chair race in an overwhelming landslide.
It also usefully changed the narrative. The month prior to Ko’s arrest was a nightmare for the TPP, with the party forced to admit massive irregularities in their financial reports, missing funds, funds routed through friends of Ko and Ko stonewalling a police search for an hour. It was also discovered that Ko and his wife had used election subsidies to buy an expensive office for personal use — a move considered unethical and self-serving, if not illegal.
TEMPORARY ALLIES
With this new-look TPP virulently opposed to the DPP and dedicated to tearing down the “Lai regime,” it made sense to partner with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), who share similar sentiments.
Increasingly, their language, talking points and attacks on the DPP converged, making the difference between TPP and KMT rallies more about the color of the flags than about substance. Increasingly, TPP and KMT politicians would attend each other’s rallies to oppose the recall campaigns and support the nuclear power referendum.
The TPP appeared to be positioning itself as a younger, feistier KMT. This is ironic for a party that previously positioned itself as “rational” compared to the KMT, and mocked KMT lawmakers as “clowns” for their antics in the legislature.
This may be tied into a strategy developed by Huang that began to appear in the spring of last year in his role as TPP caucus convener. The party had a rule that they have to vote as a bloc, and with Huang in charge, he was only outranked by Ko.
Initially, TPP caucus behavior had Ko’s fingerprints all over it when they took their seats in February last year. This changed in the months that followed as Huang became more assertive.
Ko’s strategy, as outlined in the column (“Ko Wen-je, the KMT’s prickly ally,” Aug. 16, page 12) was: “The party’s strategy under Ko was clear: Build a pan-blue alternative to the KMT that could draw on their supporters, while retaining enough of a distinct identity to appeal to moderate and independent voters that dislike the two major parties.”
As noted in that column, that was a sound strategy from an electoral perspective. There was more room to grow on the pan-blue side.
Huang drew the TPP caucus increasingly closer to the KMT, which Ko at the time expressed mixed feelings about. In June, Ko continued to mention potential future cooperation with either the KMT or DPP on legislation: “it depends simply on whether the proposed laws align with the TPP’s core values.”
Huang had nothing good to say about cooperating with the DPP.
It appears there was some tension between their attitudes and approach toward the KMT, and by extension, the party’s strategy going forward.
With Ko being held incommunicado, it is impossible to know what Ko’s thoughts are on the direction the party is taking. However, during a very brief window, he was released on bail around the new year, and he resigned as party chair, handing the reins to Huang.
This month, Huang addressed the sixth anniversary party congress, stressing Ko’s ideals and his hope for Ko to return as party chair.
He has also announced his run for mayor of New Taipei City, and namedropped Changhua, Chiayi City and Yilan as places the TPP could run candidates in next year’s election.
Cooperation has been easy for Huang so far, but as Ko himself warned, it will “not be easy” next year and 2028 with actual power on the line.
With the easy part over, will he return to something closer to Ko’s playbook?
In our next column, we will examine the evolving TPP relationship with the KMT during the transfer of power from Ko to Huang, possible motivations driving Huang and what to watch for going forward.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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