Since Hollywood exists in its own alternate reality, the summer movie season starts at the beginning of May. And now, as June rolls around, it's a toss-up as to whether Tinseltown-types are smiling or shivering.
The good news has come over the past two weeks as The Da Vinci Code and X-Men: The Last Stand each had record-breaking opening weekends in the US. Together, the two films have earned well past US$250 million domestically in fewer than 12 days; and, according to boxofficeguru.com, box-office totals for this past Memorial Day weekend were actually up 1 percent over the same period last year.
Spiffy. Except last year's box office was the worst in more than a decade, and those Memorial Day numbers were actually down 4 percent from 2004 totals.
PHOTO: NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE
This dark reality is in line with the first two weeks of the season in which Mission: Impossible 3 underperformed and Poseidon literally tanked. And those films followed the first four months of the year, when only Ice Age: The Meltdown earned more than US$100 million.
The question of whether Hollywood's financial glass is half-full or emptying quickly, and whether the theatrical movie-going experience is on the wane, may be answered over the next three months. Studios are counting on big-bet films such as Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Cars and Superman Returns to keep people streaming into theaters.
Yet aside from Cars, this month is surprisingly sparse when it comes to big-name players. Superman Returns, due at the end of the month, may or may not prove to be made of steel. And Miami Vice is relying on the buzz of a TV series that faded 20 years back.
PHOTO COURTESY OF DISNEY
No matter what, there should still be something for everyone in theaters at some point this summer. The following 10 picks include films that are either crucial to Hollywood's success or underdogs that show promise:
Cars -- How many bad movies has Pixar ever made? Answer: Zero. There's no reason to think the makers of Toy Story, Finding Nemo and The Incredibles will start now. Folks, take the kids; kids, take the folks. The film goes on release in Taiwan next week.
An Inconvenient Truth -- Every summer needs a sleeper documentary hit that takes audiences by surprise; and this one, which follows former US vice president Al Gore's crusade to expose the truth about global warming, is already raking in huge bucks in limited release. Besides, it's easily the most important film of the summer in terms of, you know, the continuation of man on Earth.
Click -- This is arguably the clearest one-star vehicle of the summer, aside from MI3, and it looks like classic Adam Sandler fare: Big, dumb fun. Our boy stars as a busy architect who learns how to control all his life situ-ations with a remote control. We said dumb.
Superman Returns -- How super is Superman these days? Director Bryan Singer left the X-Men franchise (an obviously questionable move) to helm this revival that stars Brandon (who?) Routh along with Kate Bosworth as Lois Lane and Kevin Spacey as Lex Luthor. You have to wonder if old Supe is mutant hip or somewhat irrelevant at this point. If he falls from the skies, the summer box office will take a major hit.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest -- Probably the safest bet of the summer for both audiences and money counters alike. Johnny Depp, Keira Knightley and Orlando Bloom return in a sequel that should be golden.
Lady in the Water -- It's been a while since director M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense, The Village) knocked one out of the park, and Hollywood sure could use a mid-summer blockbuster. Whether this fantasy about a woman (Bryce Dallas Howard), who magically appears in a swimming pool, will score remains to be seen.
Little Miss Sunshine -- Every year, the Sundance Film Festival has some movie that's supposed to be golden, and then it bombs. But the talent in this one (Steve Carell, Toni Collette, Greg Kinnear, Alan Arkin) seems awfully strong, and the story about parents pushing their kid into a beauty pageant seems promising.
Miami Vice -- Something has to explode at the end of July to keep the box office high. Last year saw two huge bombs -- The Island and Stealth -- drag the entire summer down during the same time period. This year's only contender is this reworking of the old TV show, starring Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx. Shaky at best.
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby -- Expectations go down as August rolls around, so Will Ferrell may surprise people playing a NASCAR race legend who must confront a French Formula One driver (Sacha Baron Cohen). Ferrell's been less than hot for a while now, he needs a hit.
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