On April 17, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) launched a bold campaign to revive and revitalize the KMT base by calling for an impromptu rally at the Taipei prosecutor’s offices to protest recent arrests of KMT recall campaigners over allegations of forgery and fraud involving signatures of dead voters. The protest had no time to apply for permits and was illegal, but that played into the sense of opposition grievance at alleged weaponization of the judiciary by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to “annihilate” the opposition parties.
Blamed for faltering recall campaigns and faced with a KMT chair race in September, Chu’s move was to kick off a series of activities — including a big rally on Saturday — and new language and vigor targeted at hardcore supporters, dumping the moderate language used during the election. For more on this, see this column published on April 24 “KMT Chairman Chu’s bold strategic charge hobbled by Taipei Mayor Chiang.”
Chu’s big night on his new campaign was undercut by Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) choosing the same night to announce a big strategic plan of his own. This watered-down Chu’s push by splitting the conversation in the press between their differing strategic visions.
Photo: Tien Yu-hua, Taipei Times
The local press seized on analysis by famous pundits. Most thought this was a major strategic shift by Chiang intended to put himself at the center of the KMT conversation and an initial challenge to Chu in the party chair race.
It was a major strategic shift by Chiang. As for this being a challenge to Chu and a bid for the party chair, it is possible — but unlikely.
CHIANG’S PLAN
Chiang’s plan called for a vote of no confidence in the ruling DPP cabinet (formally the Executive Yuan), forcing it to disband within 10 days. That is set out in Article 2 in the Additional Articles of the Constitution of the Republic of China (中華民國憲法增修條文) passed in 1997. If one-third of legislators sign off on the bill to get it to the floor and a majority of lawmakers pass it, it goes into effect.
The cabinet may request the president to dissolve the legislature, which if approved requires a new legislative election within 60 days.
Two pro-KMT media outlets on my daily reading list, United Daily News and Want Want China Times, both ran with stories about rumors suggested that 80 percent of KMT lawmakers supported the plan. Though likely a rough guess, the point that there could be benefits for the KMT legislative caucus is correct and no doubt many did support the plan.
A total of 35 members of the KMT legislative caucus are in the second stage of the recall process, though as of this writing it appears that less than two dozen will actually reach the third stage, which is a public recall vote. A highly motivated opposition only needs to gain over one quarter of the votes and outnumber the incumbent’s supporters for it to succeed. A recalled politician may not run in the subsequent by-election.
If the legislature were dissolved by an act of the president, those candidates would not be barred from running. By short-circuiting the recall process led by a motivated minority, there is potentially a higher chance they could win re-election with the broader public by appealing to those who elected them in last year’s election.
DANGERS FOR TPP
For the KMT-allied Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) this risks disaster. Analyzing Formosa polling from just prior to the last election, and the latest numbers, if a by-election were held now I estimate that the TPP would lose seats, dropping from eight to roughly five or six. A TVBS piece shared with me by Taipei Times contributor Michael Turton cited TPP internal polling that showed only around 10 percent support for the TPP, as opposed to support in the mid-twenties in Formosa polling.
Lacking an outright majority, the KMT relies on the TPP to push through legislation. A legislative by-election would hurt the TPP, and could deprive them of their pivotal status.
Knowing this, but not wanting to appear undemocratic or offend Chiang, TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) deftly shifted the conversation to focus on President William Lai (賴清德). He characterized Lai as the real problem, and noted that dissolving the cabinet would still leave him in power. Lai could simply appoint a new cabinet to his liking, and if he dissolved the legislature, that would allow him up to 60 days free rein with no legislative oversight.
The politically savvy Eric Chu showed his skill by not ruling Chiang’s proposal out, but agreeing with Huang that Lai is the ultimate target. During Saturday’s rally, using the slogan “oppose the green (DPP) commies (and) battle dictatorship,” Chu called for the legislature to initiate a recall of the president. That would require a two-thirds majority, which is impossible unless the DPP joins in, but Chu successfully shifted the attention back to himself and his agenda.
There is potentially a point in the recall process where it might look like the KMT could lose enough to risk a DPP majority, and if so, it might make sense strategically to take on Chiang’s plan, so Chu smartly kept his options open.
CHIANG’S AGENDA
That Chiang’s proposal was intended as a challenge to Chu and a prelude to a run for KMT chair is highly unlikely. This is indeed a marked shift in strategy for Chiang, however.
I doubt he gave much thought to how this might impact Chu’s plans, he is too inexperienced. He is more concerned about winning re-election as Taipei mayor next year. If he can serve two terms as Taipei mayor and do a respectable job, he will be of a good age to run for president at 50 years old in 2032. Taipei mayor has been the launchpad for three of the five democratically elected presidents, as he is well aware.
Those most likely to be in the know — Chiang himself, his father and the KMT families close to action at the time — believe that he is the illegitimate grandson of Chiang Ching-Kuo (蔣經國), making Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) his great-grandfather. Some have questioned this story, citing historical gaps, but for practical political analysis unless proven otherwise, the story is assumed to be true by those that matter.
Chiang’s problem is he is widely perceived as a play-by-the-book, unimaginative empty suit. He has reshuffled his city cabinet to prepare for the election next year, but he needed to tackle his public image.
Chu’s sudden call to attend an illegal protest was his opportunity to inject some passion and interest into his public persona. He described his attendance as “personal” and that it was his first time being a “dissident.” This not only gave him more of an image of a passionate go-getter, it also was a perfect opportunity to try and play a part in the public discussion with his plan.
With only two terms as legislator and a year-and-a-half as Taipei mayor under his belt Chiang is almost certainly focused on building his experience and career as Taipei mayor.
His plan tentatively appears to be working. He has drawn considerable media attention and discussion. Social media tracker Daily View has seen his profile rise to near the top of the list and the keyword most associated with him shift from roughly “princeling” to a term meaning “bold” or “daring.”
Though inexperienced, Chiang is wise enough to know his career path is wide open and full of potential. Boosting himself was his likely aim, not challenging Eric Chu.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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