As analysts try to figure out how last week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would affect Taiwan, a closer look at Xi’s remarks offer a glimpse into his anxiety and uncertainty over initiating war in the Taiwan Strait, while attempting to disguise his expansionist agenda through the use of rhetoric such as “opposing Taiwanese independence.”
Prior to the conclusion of the summit, Xinhua news agency published a report quoting Xi as telling Trump that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations” and that “safeguarding peace stability in Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US.”
“Taiwanese independence and peace in Taiwan Strait are incompatible,” Xi said, adding that “if it is handled properly, the bilateral [China-US] relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts.”
Threats by Xi should not be new to Trump, who appears, accordigng to media reports, to have played the role of a listener at the summit.
“Xi talked a lot about Taiwan. Xi feels very strongly about the island, and he does not want to see a movement for independence,” Trump said.
“I heard him out, but I didn’t make a comment on it,” he added.
Asked if he foresaw a conflict with China over Taiwan, Trump said: “No, I don’t think so. I think we’ll be fine,” adding that Xi does not want to see a war.
Trump also said that Xi had asked him directly whether the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked it. Trump said he had declined to answer, adding: “There’s only one person that knows that and it is me.”
While Trump maintained the US’ long-standing strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, the talks exposed Xi’s anxiety over the potential costs of rushing into war. They also suggested that deterrence against China’s aggression — including cooperation among the US and allies, Taiwan’s asymmetric defense and semiconductor supply chain resilience — is having an effect.
China’s opposition to “Taiwanese independence” is part of its cognitive warfare and push for cross-strait “unification,” meaning the forcible takeover of Taiwan to fulfill Xi’s “Chinese dream of national rejuvenation” and broader ambition for global dominance.
However, the Republic of China (ROC) was founded in 1912 — decades before the People’s Republic of China was established by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1949. The ROC government retreated to Taiwan during the Chinese Civil War and evolved into a mature democracy. Taiwan has never been ruled by communist China, and its sovereignty, Constitution, judiciary, military and border controls constitute the Taiwan Strait “status quo.”
Xi and the CCP have long feared Taiwan and the Democratic Progressive Party government would declare independence, as stronger support for sovereignty weakens Beijing’s “unification” agenda and “one China” principle.
After the Trump-Xi summit, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed that “the US’ policy on Taiwan remains unchanged,” and warned that China’s preference is for Taiwan to “willingly, voluntarily join them” through “some vote or a referendum.”
Rubio’s remarks underscored Beijing’s preference to annex Taiwan through cognitive warfare and “united front” tactics, including slogans such as “peace framework” and “peaceful unification,” aimed at persuading Taiwanese to abandon autonomy and confusing international perceptions of Taiwanese sovereignty.
Miles Yu (余茂春), director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said Xi is using Taiwan as a “shield” to deflect from issues raised by Washington, including trade deficits, fentanyl trafficking and the Iran war.
With Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin also visiting China this month, Beijing appears more focused on diplomatic theater than on using its influence to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
China is also undermining stability in the Asia Pacific, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, through military drills and territorial incursions.
“It would be a terrible mistake for China to pursue what it calls ‘reunification’ by force,” Rubio said. “There would be repercussions for that globally, not just for the US.”
While maintaining the “status quo” remains Taiwan’s consensus, President William Lai (賴清德) reiterated after the summit that Taiwan seeks to safeguard its sovereignty, democracy and freedom, and that “Taiwan’s future should be decided by Taiwanese, not any foreign forces.”
The real challenge facing Taiwan and the world is not Taiwanese independence, but resisting China’s “Taiwan reunification” scam.
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