When Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) lost her legislative seat in Hualien County in 2020, it came as a blow to pro-Taiwan supporters, comparable to the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) losses to Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidates in the 1998 Taipei and 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral elections. After this point, some supporters voted with their feet and left the area, and local politics became increasingly ossified and closed off.
Hualien’s upcoming county commissioner race, part of this year’s local elections, is starting to attract attention. Out of 260,000 eligible voters in the KMT stronghold, average turnout rates of 60 to 65 percent suggest that 156,000 to 170,000 voters would be hitting the polls on Nov. 28.
Meanwhile, the candidates, look set to form a three-way race between the KMT’s nominee, Jian Township (吉安) Mayor Yu Shu-chen (游淑貞), and two former KMT-affiliated politicians running as independents: Wei Chia-hsien (魏嘉賢) — a former Hualien City mayor — and Hualien County Council Speaker Chang Chun (張峻). It is reminiscent of the three-way split in 2003 for the same position, with the KMT’s Hsieh Shen-shan (謝深山) securing his win with an outright majority.
Hualien County’s electoral structure is at the heart of the issue. The proportion of indigenous voters has risen from about 24 percent in the early 2000s to nearly 30 percent this year, reliably turning out about 50,000 votes.
However, DPP support levels among this group have historically been low. In 2020, DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) secured 66,509 votes in Hualien County, compared with Hsiao’s 56,485 in the parallel legislative elections. This difference of 10,024 votes is largely attributed to nontraditional DPP voters in the area, of which indigenous voters should make up a significant portion. Nevertheless, indigenous votes only made up 10 to 20 percent of the boost. Even in 2022, when the DPP put forward then-Presidential Office spokesperson and indigenous politician Kolas Yotaka for county commissioner, she failed to get over the line.
Therefore, the question of who the DPP could nominate with a fighting chance of success is not a simple one. Low levels of support among indigenous voters aside, challenges also include the party’s lack of grassroots operations, weak local organizations, and a dearth of specific strategies to expand votership in Hualien City and Jian Township.
The divided landscape is reminiscent of the situation surrounding the ultimately unsuccessful recall campaign against the KMT’s so-called “King of Hualien,” Fu Kun-chi (傅?萁), in which opposition to Fu did not mean support for his recall, and support for his recall in turn did not mean support for the DPP.
Opposition to existing KMT forces certainly exists, but if voters are not meaningfully appealed to and mobilized, an electoral advantage would not actually be generated. For independent candidates Chang and Wei, if they cannot win over indigenous voters and those who came out against Fu in last year’s recall vote in advance, they would struggle to compete in the November elections.
Also troubling is the distinct possibility that the strategic vote to keep the KMT out of office would be split amongst opposition candidates and ultimately fail to secure a victory. It would be yet another instance of Hualien’s core political conundrum: The appetite for change exists, but without effective organizing and transformation, its realization remains hard to achieve.
The challenge in Hualien County is not just the fight for a single election, but how to tackle structural barriers; this is what should be focused on in the coming months.
Hsieh Chia-hao is a teacher at an elementary school in Hualien County.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
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