In the courses that I teach after retiring as a US ambassador, I talk about just how interconnected the world is today.
The US-Israeli conflict with Iran not only impacts the neighboring Gulf region, but also has global implications. For one, the price of fuel at pumps has gone up, while financial markets are jittery, raising concerns about the economy in the US and around the world.
All of this is also being felt in Taiwan, thousands of kilometers away from Iran — but what is the impact here, where any change in the “status quo” locally, and in international peace and security globally are of serious concern?
On a visit this month to Taipei, my impression is that Taiwanese are not sure. Not sure about how long the war would last; not sure what the impact would be for a nation that is dependent on trade; not sure if a US that is “all in” versus Iran would be less focused on Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region; and not sure if this could embolden Beijing to try to take advantage of the war and do something rash against Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy and freedom.
Taiwan is resilient. Its people carry on with their business, although the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is always there across the Taiwan Strait — a constant presence that people live with daily. However, the war in Iran is headline news and there is uncertainty about the consequences for Taiwan.
On the one hand, whenever the US appears to be less engaged in Taiwan or this region due to its focus elsewhere (Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Iran), people worry more. That concern about US commitment is not new, but it is there once again.
Even though a meeting between the leaders of the US and the PRC has been delayed, there is always the concern that Taiwan could be used as a bargaining chip, part of a “deal” between the two superpowers. People are closely watching plans for the summit in Beijing to see what the fall out could be for Taiwan.
However, there are some people who think that the success of the US military against Iran could actually help stabilize cross-strait relations, at least temporarily. If US forces wipe out Chinese equipment and hardware supplied to Iran, that might cause leaders in Beijing to pause and question how well the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would stack up against US military technology if there was a conflict over Taiwan.
For Taiwanese and observers, the vibe today is a tad more uncertain. The war in Iran and its impact on Taiwan are not yet clear. People are uncertain about whether reported negotiations between the US and Iran, and a possible 15-point peace plan that would end the war are real or fake news. It is also unclear whether the deployment of additional US forces to the region indicates more war, not less.
What is clear and certain is that Taiwan would be keeping a watchful eye on developments that are close to home and further afield.
For someone such as myself, and other people who support Taiwanese democracy and freedom, it is — as always — an interesting time to be in Taipei.
John Hennessey-Niland is a retired ambassador, director of the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, distinguished professor of the practice and head of diplomacy concentration at the Bush School of Government and Public Service Department of International Affairs, senior fellow at the National Defense University Joint Forces Staff College and a distinguished adjunct fellow at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies.
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