Thu, Mar 26, 2026 page8

• Japanese PM will not cross the line

  • By Bonnie Yushih Liao 廖雨詩
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  When Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stood beside US President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday last week, the question was inevitable: Would Japan send naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz?

  For Taiwan, watching closely, the answer mattered not only for the Middle East, but for how far a key regional partner might go in a crisis.

  Takaichi’s response was cautious, but revealing. The security of the strait is vital, but any deployment of the Japan Self-Defense Forces must remain within constitutional limits, she said.

  Japan, she emphasized, understands clearly what it can — and cannot — do.

  That answer cuts through much of the speculation.

  In the wake of US calls for allied participation in maritime security operations, some commentary has framed the Strait of Hormuz crisis as a strategic opening for Japan — a moment that could accelerate its long-debated “normalization” and expand its military role beyond post-World War II constraints. The narrative is compelling — external pressure creates opportunity and Japan steps forward, but this interpretation is misleading.

  Japan is not a country waiting for a single moment to redefine itself. Its security posture has evolved over decades through gradual, legally bounded and politically negotiated steps. From UN peacekeeping to logistical support for US forces, and the 2015 security legislation enabling limited collective self-defense, each shift has been incremental.

  There has never been a sudden transformation — and there is no reason to expect one now.

  For Tokyo, the Strait of Hormuz is not a stage for geopolitical ambition, but a point of structural vulnerability. Nearly 90 percent of Japan’s oil imports pass through Middle Eastern routes. Any disruption would have immediate and severe economic consequences. Japan’s primary concern is not projecting power, but ensuring stability.

  Japan’s strategic instinct is not to seize opportunities, but to manage risks. Decisions about whether — and how — to participate in maritime operations are shaped by three constraints — legal permissibility, alliance coordination and escalation risk.

  Even where capabilities exist, they do not automatically translate into action.

  This is particularly clear in discussions of mine-clearing operations. Japan’s expertise in mine countermeasures is widely recognized and often highlighted as a potential contribution. Yet mine-clearing is not a neutral or purely technical task. It is closely tied to active conflict and carries the risk of being treated as a belligerent act.

  For Japan, crossing that threshold is not a matter of capability, but of political judgement.

  This is where Taiwan should pay close attention.

  Taiwan’s strategic discourse often assumes that regional partners, especially Japan, will expand their military role in response to escalating crises, but Japan’s behavior suggests otherwise. Even under pressure, Tokyo is more likely to calibrate its involvement — contributing through intelligence, surveillance and logistical support, rather than direct combat operations.

  Japan’s post-World War II strategy has long rested on a delicate balance: Maintaining alliance credibility with the US while minimizing the risk of becoming a direct participant in conflict. This balancing act has endured through multiple crises and remains central to Japan’s approach today.

  In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan is therefore likely to engage — but selectively, and within clearly defined limits.

  The broader implication is one Taiwan cannot ignore. Strategic partners do not shed institutional constraints in moments of crisis, nor do they rapidly assume roles that contradict their long-established security frameworks. Expecting otherwise risks building policy on misperception rather than reality.

  The Strait of Hormuz crisis does not mark Japan’s return to the global military stage. Instead, it reinforces a more enduring pattern: A constrained power adjusting cautiously within a system it has no intention of abandoning.

  Taiwan’s security cannot be premised on the assumption that others would step beyond their limits. It must begin with a precise understanding of where those limits lie — and what they mean in practice.

  Only then can strategy be grounded in reality rather than expectation.

  Bonnie Yushih Liao is an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Department of Diplomacy and International Relations.
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